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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (39202)	3/8/1999 2:26:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

With the diplomatic saber-rattling going on between Iran and SA the last few days, its obvious that OPEC is trying to put on the game face. Unfortunately, they would do better to take lessons from Bill Gates on managing expectations. If Iran and SA hope that pre-OPEC statements and other positioning will do the same job on prices that actual cut-commitment announcements would do (and so decide on no cuts), then we're definitely in for a nasty sell-off after that announcement, if that's what happens. I get kind of nervous hearing all this bullish talk from Iranian and SA oil ministers. It might be good for prices very short-term, but the street doesn't like to be disappointed. FWIW, regardless of what they announce on Mar. 23rd, I think that continued well shut-ins/Asia recovery-in-progress/summer driving and in general less oil coming onto market meeting increased demand will be enough to raise prices steadily but slowly into the 2nd half of the year. I agree with the predictions of $16-17/bbl, perhaps as early as Sept 30. Just my WAG.