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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (28954)	3/8/1999 12:55:00 PM
From: Fred Levine	Respond to of 70976

Related to the "fair price" is an estimate of the future.. From Sunday's NY Times, the projected sales in yr 2002 of: Interactive TV --- 7.8 units Direct Broadcast Satellite TV ---- 14 million units "Smart" Phones --- 6.8 units Video games --- 18.5 units Electronic toys --- $1.86 BILLION Dollars. IMO, that's a lot o' chips. In addition, the article is about the fierce competition for these markets, which means that productivity will be critical. Finally, maybe the techies could comment on how many chips each unit use. fred

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (28954)	3/8/1999 1:36:00 PM
From: Duker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

<<Since nobody here seems to want to do fundamental analysis on AMAT, I spent 15 minutes over the weekend to do so, even though I have no position in it.>> Fundamental analysis of AMAT in 15 minutes? Wow, I could be a lot more efficient if I could do that. In fact, I could cycle through 36 companies in a 10 hour day (got to eat lunch for an hour). Assuming 240 business days, I could "fundamentally analyze" 8,640 companies every year. I should walk over and pitch my services to Ned Johnson. He doesn't need his 45 research analysts (@ $300K all in cost per year ... probably low), I could do it all. At a price anywhere below $13.5 million, I would be "adding value" in consultant speak. Think of the documentation savings. The companies would no longer have to provide me with 10Ks, 10Qs, Proxies, product announcements, earnings releases, etc. I would not need them. I would not have time to read them. Conference calls? Forget about it! On site visits? Not on my time! <g> --Duker