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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J. P. who wrote (50569)	3/8/1999 12:32:00 PM
From: Knighty Tin	Respond to of 132070

JP, I can list a bunch, but my experience has shown me that it is one I didn't know about that pops the bubble. Here are a few I can think of: 1. We are soon to go into pre-warning season. Earnings stink and estimates are way too high. 2. The Fed gets some iron in their soul. 3. The PIII is admitted to be a dud. True, this should only impact one co, but as we saw today, that co's fortunes can run the entire Nasdaq. 4. The ramp up in pc sales from PIII intro is admitted to be a lie. Related to #4, but not exactly the same. 5. Several foreign countries get into trouble. 6. The Japanese get smart and raise rates. 7. Oil prices continue to rise. 8. Russia or China blows up. Related to #5, but of much greater geo-political significance. 9. Foreigners lose faith in the easy dollar. Very likely. 10. Bond rates continue to rise. 11. Massive rise in personal and corporate bankruptcies. Again, very likely. 12. An end of the takeover game due to Y2K concerns. Since the lion's share of money pushing the market is the cash portion of takeovers, that deflates the bubble immediately. 13. The banking system blows up. Again! 14. Somebody figures the internal rate of return from owning the avg. share of stock. 15. Everyone continues to be downsized. 16. Obviously, war and political upheaval are bad things. <g> Of course, I remember the "peace scares" that rattled the market in the 1960s. Different world then. MB