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To: Baldur Fjvlnisson who wrote (1442)	3/8/1999 1:12:00 PM
From: Dan O.	Respond to of 2153

Baldur, thank you. I got in without registering and it was a provocative article. I still have faith in the ability of the cartel and big oil to manipulate prices to their (and hopefully our) advantage. I also disagree that oil could go to and be sustained at $5. At the present levels marginal production wells and facilities are being closed. Some still operate at a loss, as the expense of shuttering is greater than the expected losses if oil stays at this level for a year. If oil prices fall these supplies will dry up also. All funds going to remote sites and transportation development will dry up and eventually demand will outstrip supply. There has been much discussion of the oil glut but in reality the world glut is 1-2 weeks of consumption and could evaporate with a resurgence in demand as the far east regains growth momentum, China continues strong and March 31, OPEC comes to some agreement. IMHO, Dan

To: Baldur Fjvlnisson who wrote (1442)	3/8/1999 3:27:00 PM
From: Dan O.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2153

If the DOE says so it must be true <g>. Borrowed from another thread, thank you snorth: March 8, 1999 Release-- Short-Term Energy Outlook eia.doe.gov "On an annual basis, we expect demand growth to outpace supply growth in both 1999 and 2000, thus reducing the current inventory overhang. Bolstering our modestly bullish view for prices is the fact that EIA has revised its estimates for U.S. oil production downward for 1998 and consequently has significantly increased the expected decline rate for 1999.." eia.doe.gov for the full release. -- Susan