To: Stefan who wrote (108221 ) 3/8/1999 3:31:00 PM From: edamo Respond to of 176387
stefan....dell/speculation "you don't pretend to be investing...you are speculating".....this is not now,never was,and never will be a path to accrue wealth on a consistent basis.... i can't speak for others,but i am an investor...a value investor, which is a relative term...i own dell,msft,intc,emc...all high pe's, but yes..value...why because they maintain a pattern of progressive growth and profits, franchise names, and "gorillas" in their respective markets...the smokestack rules of valuation set forth by graham are no longer in play...even buffett conceded this point...look at his positions in mcd and ko...why buy bethlehem steel at an under 10 pe....low pe sometimes indicates a problem of no or slow growth and at times turns negative. dell had no shortfall in sales...the shortfall was in an analysts prediction of their perception of dell sales...major difference... seasonal deviation as far as unit sales have been posted numerous times on this thread...look back to mid feb, and you will find... how do i know tommorrow that someone will pay a higher price..i don't, but basic logic, common sense and a bit of business acumen provides an indication that dell has not reached it's all time high, and neither have the indexes...... there is too much effort in shorting be it the common or the put buying method...you buy a put @ 3.625...i sell a put @ 52...true, different strikes and expirations...but where is the risk/reward ratio greatest....learn the odds...which are always with the house/casino/seller...you are the speculator/gambler/options buyer....i win, you lose...you can't counter with an intellectual argument on the odds...because you can't be blind to reality... you are not a contrarian...you pereceive yourself to be one...a true contrarian recognizes value when those around fail to do so...there is no value in shorting...it is a gamble.... stop being hostile to those who have achieved using a common sense long term investment style...this comes with maturity, which some never realize....strive to be as they...become the house/casino...take the money from the foolish who constantly step up to the table and place their bets.... best regards, ed a.