Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (29577)	3/9/1999 5:25:00 AM
From: Alex	Respond to of 116764

3/08/99 - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Historical Perspectives Column <Picture> Mar. 8 (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/KRTBN)--GREENSPAN SHOWS POWER OF TODAY'S CENTRAL BANKER: When Alan Greenspan testified before Congress last week, millions of global investors peered into the Fed chairman"s deliberately opaque phrases for some clue as to the direction of American interest rates. Greenspan"s public musings have become economic epiphanies, capable of sending asset prices soaring or diving in an instant. With his wildly incongruous appointment as one of People magazine"s 25 most intriguing "celebrities," the 72-year-old Greenspan has made the central banker recognizable on Main Street as well as Wall Street. It was not always that way. While the Bank of England has been in existence for 300 years and the Bank of France was established by Napoleon in 1800, only a handful of central banks dotted the globe a hundred years ago. The American Federal Reserve System wasn"t created until 1913. Today, most nations have central banks playing key roles in guiding economic policy. The rise of the central banker seems preordained. The 20th century embodied the blossoming of capitalism and the concentration of power. Both factors account for the ascendancy of a central authority to oversee a country"s banking system and money supply. As recently as the 1960s, however, central banks were viewed as weak second cousins to the more important federal government. A brand of economic theory known as Keynesian came to be the dominant model of the postwar period. In the Keynesian view, political leaders could fine-tune economic growth through shifts in the levels of taxing and spending. Those two factors -- known collectively as fiscal policy -- were the dominant levers used in orchestrating economic affairs in the immediate postwar era. Under Presidents Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon and Ford, Fed leaders were virtually unknown to the American public. The rise of the monetary option as a vital tool of economic policy began in earnest in the aftermath of the fierce inflations that ravaged industrialized economies during the 1970s. In 1978, President Carter responded to persistent inflationary pressures by appointing Paul Volcker, a strict monetarist, to lead the Fed. A year later, with a cutoff in Mideast oil exacerbating broadly based imbalances between supply and demand, Volcker decided to get tough with inflation. In effect, Volcker put the United States back on a de facto gold standard, forcing monetary growth to conform to strict guidelines. Short-term interest rates shot up to more than 20 percent and the U.S. economy slipped into the first of what would become a double-dip recession. By 1982, with unemployment near double digits and no end to the economic slump in sight, Volcker became a lightning rod for criticism of Fed independence and powers. Volcker"s unilateral actions to stomp out inflation had already contributed to the end of Jimmy Carter"s presidency and caused a steep slide in Ronald Reagan"s popularity. From the perspective of nearly 20 years, however, it is clear that the stringent monetary discipline imposed by Volcker laid the groundwork for the current economic boom. Greenspan, who succeeded Volcker in 1987 and has faced a more varied array of problems, has achieved similar success. While a fully independent central bank is now widely accepted as necessary to a nation"s financial well-being, the age-old conflict between price stability (the first priority of most central banks) and job growth could soon put that acceptance to the test. Although the United States is enjoying its best economic health in 40 years, the length of the current expansion and unresolved troubles in emerging markets have created a volatile financial climate. Greenspan is likely to come under pressure not to abort the expansion by raising interest rates unless a significant uptick in inflation becomes evident. And despite his astute management of the economy, political considerations may block Greenspan"s reappointment when his term expires next year. In Europe, the inherent difficulty of fitting a single monetary policy to the needs of 11 sovereign nations could soon place that region"s new central bank under intense pressure. Already, the political winds have shifted in several of the countries participating in the monetary union, implying a greater policy emphasis on economic growth and less on price stability. With unemployment still at 11 percent in Euroland, the European Central Bank is already under subtle pressure to lower interest rates -- against its wishes. As the 21st century dawns, central bankers have replaced political leaders as the single most important source of economic policy-making. Like politicians, central bankers make mistakes. Unlike politicians, however, those mistakes are usually for the right reasons. By Tom Saler -0- Visit the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on the World Wide Web at onwis.com (c) 1999, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Distributed by Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News. END!A$2?MW-MARKET-HISTORY-COL

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (29577)	3/9/1999 5:32:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116764

Crude Gains on Possible Cuts Tuesday, 9 March 1999 (AP) CRUDE OIL futures gained a second day Tuesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but finished well off early highs, as market participants tried to determine how serious world oil producers are about ending a global supply glut. On other markets, coffee and coffee futures advanced. Crude matched four-month highs reached a day earlier as investors struggled over whether the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would at its March 23 meeting in Vienna propose additional output cuts in a bid to shore up prices. There was talk oil ministers had agreed on Iran's production targets, a move that could pave the way for a new round of cuts. In the past year, world oil producers have removed about 3 million barrels daily from the market, but analysts have said that has been mitigated by increased output from Iraq and cheating among those who have pledged cuts. And beyond that, some say demand is so weak that at least 1.2 million barrels daily above the 3 million would need to be cut to significantly increase prices. Crude also rose in nervous trading tied to the late-afternoon release of industry group American Petroleum Institute's weekly inventory data. Investors were taken by surprise last week when the group reported a sharp decline in crude inventories, which erased what had been a long year-over-year surplus. Energy futures have suffered for months as overproduction combined with back-to-back mild winters in major U.S. heating regions torpedoed prices and sharply reduce oil companies' profit margins. Crude oil for April delivery rose 22 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $13.85 a barrel, the highest since Nov. 6; April unleaded gasoline rose 0.29 cent to 42.90 cents a gallon; April heating oil rose 0.23 cent to 36 cents a gallon; April natural gas rose 7 cents to $1.929 for each 1,000 cubic feet. Coffee futures rose sharply on the Board of Trade of the City of New York amid concern about the state of the midseason crop in Colombia, the world's largest producer of the gourmet-style arabica beans favored by American consumers. Colombia growers are reporting the Mitaca, or mid-crop coffee harvest, may be as much as 20 percent lower than last year's harvest following heavy rains during the crucial flowering period. Market participants also bid prices higher as freight workers in Colombia considered striking, a move that would delay shipments. While the peak consumption period in both Europe and the United States is winding down, roasters in recent weeks have let inventories dwindle as they sat on the sidelines awaiting lower prices. May arabica coffee rose 2.05 cents to $1.062 a pound. Copper gained on the New York Mercantile Exchange amid a third day of sharp declines in warehouse supplies, buoying optimism that recent demand weakness may be reversing itself. The London Metal Exchange reported inventories in its warehouses fell 1,550 metric tons overnight Monday to 697,050 metric tons, with most of that coming out of Singapore. Market participants pointed to heavy buying out of South Korea and China, which could be a sign that economic weakness in Asia may be showing some signs of recovery. Copper is used in wiring and plumbing, mainly in the construction sector, but has seen its fortunes fade after global economic troubles sharply curtailed demand in what had been the fastest-growing region of the world. May high-grade copper rose .45 cent to 63.10 cents a pound.