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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (23874)	3/8/1999 3:53:00 PM
From: Ruffian	Respond to of 152472

Guest Opinion> From the March 8, 1999 issue of Wireless Week Guest Opinion: 3G: Wireless' 'Alice In Wonderland' By Leonard Kolsky NBC recently showed an acclaimed "Alice in Wonderland" to bolster its February "sweeps" ratings. The world of third-generation standards and spectrum has been exhibiting its own brand of "Alice in Wonderland" topsy-turvy logic for almost a decade. We have opposite sides both declaring victory at each International Telecommunication Union, European Union or United States government pronouncement. We have the FCC declaring that our policy of multiple standards for second generation makes us the envy of the world while virtually every other country has happily settled on a single standard. And we have that same world adopting identical spectrum allocations for third generation except, of course, us. But the U.S. government claims (hopes) our operators don't need more spectrum than what's available for personal communications services anyway. "Tea, anyone?" asked the Mad Hatter. Whatever the ultimate outcome of 3G, this much seems certain: • ITU will approve at least four standards. • There will not be a single harmonized 3G code division multiple access standard. Europe and Japan are committed to wideband-CDMA. cdma2000 will be employed here and in parts of Region 2. Elsewhere? I'd bet on W-CDMA. • There will be a time division multiple access 3G standard. • At the World Radio Conference 2000, the world will make substantial additional spectrum available for future wireless services, both terrestrial and satellite. The United States will either take a reservation (oppose) or will lag years behind. We still haven't implemented spectrum for 2G that was adopted at WRC '92 although a current FCC rulemaking (Docket 95-18) could partially correct that discrepancy. What's the consequence? The U.S. cellular market will remain fragmented. Manufacturers will not enjoy economies of scale; hence, operators won't either. The embedded investment that U.S. operators have in their existing disparate 2G systems makes agreement on a single 3G standard realistically impossible. But the advantages of a single standard for reasons of economy and to accommodate roaming appear irrefutable. Operators, manufacturers and the government should explore how to foster an industry process to reach such a consensus. If not for 3G, what about 4G, or 5G? What about by 2020? "Why won't you behave sensibly?" asked Alice. "We are," replied Mr. Toad, "we're always right; they never are." Finally, the United States must end its insularity in allocating spectrum. Harmonization of spectrum on a global basis will enable the United States to garner the benefits of global roaming. "Oh, yes," said the Queen, "when I travel abroad I talk to everyone, but, of course, at home I can't do that." Leonard Kolsky is a former Motorola Inc. vice president who specialized in telecom policy and strategy. He currently consults for Motorola and has become Of Counsel to Steptoe & Johnson, a Washington, D.C.-based law firm.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (23874)	3/8/1999 4:03:00 PM
From: Ruffian	Respond to of 152472

Q Close 77 3/4 <eom.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (23874)	3/9/1999 11:48:00 AM
From: John Hayman	Respond to of 152472

Mqurice, Well boy, looks like we are inching our way up to 80 today. Are you watching the ticks? When the time comes you will be a hero for that prediction! good luck, john

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (23874)	3/11/1999 1:25:00 AM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Mqurice, Dow 16,000 Feb 2002 Are you turning bearish? That's only 18% annual rate of growth from today's closing price. Joe