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To: diana g who wrote (39299)	3/8/1999 5:11:00 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Respond to of 95453

Also, if you look at the trading volumes of the high market cap stocks, it is obvious many funds also think there will be a cut.

To: diana g who wrote (39299)	3/8/1999 6:09:00 PM
From: Mike from La.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Some stock market analysts are making a big deal out of a supposed statement by the Venezuela oil minister that they will not make cuts. They are not presenting the facts accurately. It was the oil union leader who assigned those comments to the oil minister. There were no direct comments from the minister himself. Mere hearsay. A battle is brewing between Chavez Frias and the union. The union broke one of the cardinal rules of negotiations by taking a statement out of context, during the course of negotiations. The intent was probably to exert pressure on Chavez Frias, but it will accomplish just the opposite. When parties are holding discussions, everything is confidential until an agreement is reached, and a joint, or an agreed to statement is made reflecting the agreement. This is to allow both parties the freedom to present offers and proposals at the negotiation table. None are binding, they are just part of the process. It is a serious breech of good faith to go public with a supposed statement, in an attempt to hold the other party to it. This act shows a serious deterioration in the talks. It is difficult to see how Chavez can trust the union to negotiate in good faith, when they use such tactics. If Chavez Frias is going to do battle, now is the time. If the union strikes, it will only reinforce the public's view, used by Chavez Frias during the elections, that the oil workers and the oil company are pursuing their selfish ends, at the cost of the country's economy. It will heighten the perception that they are out of control. The public will support strong measures to rein them in. There is no question who the Army will support. The union is playing into Chavez's hands by giving him all the ammunition he needs to do what he must do, and to deliver on his promises made before the election. He will make the oil industry subservient to the government, not vice versa. Any disruptions to production from a strike can go towards Venezuela's share of OPEC production cuts. The unions are giving Chavez Frias his first real test with the old guard. His credibility, and future effectiveness, depends on his decisively winning this battle. If he fails, his campaign promises will go the way of most politicians' promises, and he will lose the trust of those who elected him. Plus, the power of the office to which he was elected, will be gone. Considering his background and character, I'd personally think twice about taking him on. Mike