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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (50779)	3/8/1999 9:19:00 PM
From: MythMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

HO HO HO chance of BK - nil chance top is in - nil probability that AZW1 will nail year end Dow - 95% you got a better chance of College of Charleston to go all the way in NCAA's than BK -g- MM

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (50779)	3/9/1999 11:35:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Peter, I won't answer all your questions because it involves too much guess work . I have often said the bigger the boom the bigger the bust and history bears( HO HO HO bear) this out. Dutch tulip bulbs, south Sea bubble, Mississippi scheme, The US market in the 20's, Japan in the 80's. It is worth noting that Japan's economy is hurting even with the benefit of a US consumer who is willing to take on debt and save little to consume. When the US economy goes into recession this year the Japanese will really be hurting. Japan's Nikkei is down about 65% after 10 yrs -obviously no new highs there-g-; the US mkt was down 90% and took 25 years to make a new high- use your immagination. Some other factors to consider -we all know the US mkt has shattered all valuation records by a huge margin. In '29 peak the stk mkt capitalization as % GDP was 81% we are now at 150% of GDP, If memory serves debt as a % of GDP was 190% we are now at 260 -70 %. Some time ago I posted an Alan Newman link showing that the stock mkt cap. as vs. M2 was at the lowest level in history. I would also argue that the current accounting practices are the most aggressive and misleading in history . The magnitude of public participation is unprecedented. the US economy is leveraged like never before. The timing issue gets tricky because our leaders appear to be going for broke -they want short term gain and disregard the lessons of history which tell us that the bursting of this bubble will have disastrous consequences. IMO Alan Greenspan has secured his place in history as the most reckless and irresponsible banker in history. I suspect the averages will suffer a severe decline and the economy will be impaired for years. I know you want a number so here is my guess- the Dow will hit the 3000 range again and the mother of all tops happens soon I guess. Mike