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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (51960)	3/8/1999 8:35:00 PM
From: Fred Fahmy	Respond to of 1578290

kash, <We may drop down some tomorrow but once they show the K-7 in a few weeks the stock will recover to the $18-19 range. It's the show me the money range. If they ever do perform and have a good quarter the stock price will go up.> I can't argue with any of this. I agree on all counts. AMD always recovers based on hopes and new product announcements. The only questions is how high will AMD eventually get this time around before going back to the mid to low teens, mid 20's, low 30's?? It appears that AMD has an endless supply of prospective investors who are willing to bid it up in hopes of better days. That's the driver for the high end of the $15-30 trading range. The driver for the downside range is when reality takes over (like now). Good luck to all, FF

To: kash johal who wrote (51960)	3/9/1999 1:01:00 PM
From: RDM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1578290

kash <It looks like they are learning the game slowly but painfully. For the first quarter they were forecasting 5.5M. Now for Q2 after problems allegedly fixed they are only forecasting 5.0M> It interesting that in the January CC I recall them forecasting approximately 22-24 million CPUS for the year. That is there was no forecasted increase in CPU count from the current rate despite the Dresden fab coming on line. In most forecasts things are forecasted higher that the current run rate and not level as in the AMD 1999 "CC" CPU chip forecast. I concluded that this meant that AMD would have to process more wafers of the K6-III and K-7 type to get the same number of chips. This would be a forecasted increase for wafer starts but since the die size is larger, particularly for .25 micron runs, then total number of parts may be the same. Hopefully, the revenue could be up by as much as 50% or more due to the higher planned ASP of the K6-III. Thus the 5 million pieces is perhaps a 10% shortfall in what they said they were planning. The revenue and profit shortfall will be greater since the "late chips" are the highest price and most profitable to produce. There will be a "significant loss" this quarter, but that was indicated before in the first week of February. The real question is what about next quarter. Will the K6-III be plentiful at 400-450? Allen says they will. fnews.yahoo.com <As for proof that the worst is behind AMD, Allen says, "We have seen the silicon coming out of the [manufacturing plant] for March," he says. "We know we are back on track in frequency output." > Will the mobile K6 be plentiful at the 380 MHz, 366 MHz, and 350 MHz speed? Atiq Raza said they had a production run of K7 underway. Twelve weeks from March 8 is May 31. What will AMD do with five hundred wafer of K7s coming out of fab on May 31? Will they announce a 600 Mhz K7 in May or June?