To: Dennis who wrote (14664 ) 3/11/1999 4:32:00 PM From: Walter in HK Respond to of 64865
"I did buy sunw starting in the mid 50's so I guess I am not as dumb as I sound. " To all of you, this incredible market tempts one to confuse brains with luck. I have been in the market seriously since the early 70s (promised 5 kids each 4 years of college) and my father-in-law bought stock before the '29 crash. Notice, the loudmouth shorts are not heard from of late. They were lucky at one time, else they wouldn't have been loudmouths. You have to do work,investigating the companies (and much is done here but also entertainment talk), and you do have to be lucky. But realize you have been. From the work you develop judgement. I have a good BS detector, for reading the Chairmans letter to the stockholders. The most successful investor of all, good old Warren Buffett, said recently you can't time the market. That is true in my observation. They asked Walter Wriston one day in an interview when he was head of Citibank what he thought the interest rates would be at the end of the year. His answer: If I knew I wouldn't have to work. Outsiders like myself can not really judge what gimmik is going to make a ton of money and where.The whole Internet / Communications business is still evolving. Amazing what happens. The transistor was invented in 1948 (I leaned as EE). No way of predicting where it will end. Convergence (Gates, yesterday here in Hong Kong) or not (Jobs) etc etc. You watch what they, the SUNW's, are doing, how well are they managed and how good is their strategic judgement. How little BS in the AR. It is fun having picked a SUNW and a VISX ('95 = $12, now 186) but there are others ....about which we all talk less. Actually, I enjoyed Maytag better which I rode from 16 to 54 in 4 years and is the only one I sold in two years. You can judge the business better. Luck beats brains anytime. It is not being smart, not to know that.