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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gbh who wrote (50806)	3/9/1999 7:26:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

GBH: Intel's prices are being forced down by a glutted spot market, and by the fact that Intel has been creamed by AMD in the bottom end. Those prices change almost daily and rarely in an upward direction. Go back and check out what AMD's production numbers were a year ago, then compare with today. Every darned one of the micros AMD sells came out of Intel's former turf. While I don't own AMD and never have, (I prefer to own stocks where some profits will be made within the definable future), I think that AMD has done a staggering job of ramping up and of cuffing Intel behind the ears. If you are willing to pay an insane price for a company which has just had its business plan torn up, its market share swiped, its margins squeezed, then you go ahead. If you can't see the degree to which the PC market place is totally glutted and understand that this has nasty implications for Intel, then I truly feel sorry for you. This market is paying more now for Intel than when it owned the micro market, and when owning that market was worth something. Your refusal to recognize this basic problem leaves you relying on the greater fool theory as an owner of INTC stock. Whether you are convinced or not that this glut will be long-lived is up to you. At my end, having systematically documented the unrelenting and grinding slowdown in PC sales growth for over two years, I think one has to have blinders on, not to see where we are going, especially as one country after another falls into the abyss and ceases to be interested in PCs. As far as your belief in the high end buyers always being there to acquire the latest high priced offering,....who cares. They are getting to be a small fraction that gets smaller and smaller, especially with no new apps. The action is at the low end. My basic point is that the PC market is glutted and over-supplied and that the prices paid for PC related stocks do not reflect this fact. Using deep-out-of-the-money-puts is an acceptable way for me to patiently await the return of "discounting". Best, Earlie