To: RSkarsten who wrote (89 ) 3/9/1999 9:27:00 PM From: Ed Ajootian Respond to of 272
Russ, Benz has 55% of the Howell and 64% of the Byrd I believe. They have 70% of the Fortenberry. In the deal with Shell Capital they dedicated about 60% of the net cash flow from the Howell, the Fortenberry, and a couple of other wells, to pay back Shell for its production payment. This will take about 2 years to pay off at current gas prices. Right now they have two wells that are producing in Oakvale Dome. The Fortenberry will make 3. To be conservative you should figure on a netback figure of a buck an mcf (thats a US buck, not a C-buck). The netback would be higher if gas prices really do rise back to the $2.50 mark later this year as some are calling for. Production costs, royalties & taxes run you about $.80 an mcf I believe. If memory serves me correctly Mark told me their overhead is now running at about $2.5 mm a year. There is no question in my mind that this stock is rediculously undervalued right now, but as I said before I feel folks are just waiting like vultures on the sidelines, for the big seller to panic and dump more of his shares at even lower prices. I believe he is north of the border so there will soon come a time (i.e. the next several months) when he will be backed into a corner and will have to either dump here on the Vancouver exchange or be ready to dump when the stock becomes trading on the US Bulletin Board. All Benz fans are just gonna have to be patient until the selling has subsided. I feel once the 4th quarter numbers are out and we have a 12/31/98 balance sheet and reserves valuation, the undervaluation of this company will be painfully obvious. That point may be folks' big chance to buy this stock at a huge discount, on very solid information, knowing that the price is just temporarily being impaired due to a big seller in the market.