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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (7806)	3/9/1999 1:36:00 AM
From: Smooth Drive	Respond to of 99985

Good Evening All, The DOW INDUSTRIALS closed down – 8.47 points at 9727.61 but up a big time 402.83 points or 4.32% from a week-ago Monday. The 50 X 150 P&F chart (which I'll show below) had another box fill in and of course, it's at an all time high. TRANSPORTS closed down – 24.39 points at 3288.4 but are up 62.54 points or 1.94% from last week. It had a double top and spread double top buy signal today on its P&F chart for a nice breakout pattern. However, it closed weak in the 10% of its trading range added to the low, and therefore has an 85% chance of a lower low tomorrow. UTILITIES closed down – 2.28 points at 299.23 but are still up big at 8.21 points or 2.82% for the week. The Dow Jones 20 Bond Average P&F chart, which I have previously posted and discussed here, has not reversed up yet. But – the TYX P&F chart had a double bottom sell signal on Friday and who knows – the other indicators depict the TYX as relatively overbought. (Now if one were to speculate that interest, for a multitude of reasons, was going to drop, and that bonds would therefore rise, well …..) The S&P 500 closed up 7.26 points at 1282.73 and is up 46.57 points or 3.77% for the week. Its P&F chart is sitting at huge resistance at 1280 where three previous highs have not been able to breakthrough. But today's close was within 10% of its high low range deducted from the high and it has an 85% chance of a higher high tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised to see it break that resistance tomorrow. Tonight in honor of the Captain, the NDX closed up 64.18 points at 2034.05 or 3.26% and up 96.35 points or 4.97% for the week. It also has an 85% chance of a higher high tomorrow. TONIGHT'S P&F CHART The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) looks like this: 9750 + X 9700 + X 9650 + X + 9600 X + X X + 9550 X O + X O X 9500 X O + X O + X 9450 X O X X O + X 9400 X O X O 2 X O 3 X 9350 X 1 X O X O X O X X X O X O X 9300 X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X 9250 X O X O X O X O X O X O X O X O O 9200 X O X O O X O X O O X O 9150 X O X * O X O X O X 9100 X O X * O O O 9050 X O X X * 9000 X C X O X * < Bearish Support Line 8950 X X O X O X * 8900 X O X O O X * 8850 X O X O X * 8800 X O O X * + 8750 X O X * + 8700 B O * + 8650 X X * + 8600 X O X * + 8550 X O X + * 8500 X O X + * 8450 X O X + * 8400 X O X + * 8350 X O + * 8300 X + 8250 X + 8200 X + 8150 X + 8100 X + 8050 X X + 8000 X O X + 7950 X O X + 7900 X O + 7850 X + 7800 O X + 7750 O X + 7700 O X + 7650 O X + 7600 O X + 7550 O X + < Official Bullish Support Line 7500 O X + 7450 O + + Long term Bullish (trading above the active Bullish Support Line) and short term bullish (on a double top buy signal that occurred at 9450). Its vertical price objective off the bottom is ((53)50)+ 9100 = 9850. Its vertical price objective from the first breakout is ((83)50)+ 9100 = 10300. Its second Bullish Resistance Line off the bottom is sitting at 9850 and this will be formidable resistance. Conclusion: From my P&F perspective, I'm Long term bearish and short term bearish. But -- I'm short short term bullish <g>. I expect to see some higher highs in a number of indexes and will trade/invest accordingly. Take care, Eric