To: David Peterson who wrote (6125 ) 3/9/1999 1:50:00 AM From: Ed Perry Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17679
< If we get a market correction, we may be holding for a long time..> The surprise may be that being parked in a sold out small cap value situation may be the "safest" place to be in the teeth of a solid market correction - as long as the small cap has real tangible assets. This according to John Rothchilds's "The Bear Book" a well written and informative read. It seems that the high flying darlings will encounter the most resistance in the follow-on recovery. Here, there will be plenty of disappointed holders in these eager to get out "whole" all the way up through any attempt at recovery. Thus, the groundwork is set for rotation into another market sector leadership group. On the other hand, the down trodden value situations have already had their branches well shaken. In the case at hand, what will remain are the stubborn, obstinate, obdurate, intractable, unflappable, immovable typical AXC like shareholder. All in all, I would be very comfortable being positioned in a potential player in some aspect of the Convergence industry ---- Entertainment, Internet, Communications and Computers. In the upcoming cycle, this Convergence could turn out to be more important than drugs, tobacco and toiletries. In an immediate sense, the current and prior minor declines did not bring out any significant selling. In fact, volume on the declines is running at only slightly more than the same levels as during the November and December 98 accumulations. Even so, as the remaining transactions pull out more shares from weak hands, the indication is that later selling when it really occurs, I mean with serious volume, will be at much higher prices. Here, new buyers will have to accept the higher prices which staunch longs are holding for. In sum, it looks like more accumulation is taking place, but at a bit higher level. Ed Perry