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Technology Stocks : Alcatel (ALA) and France -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Steve Fancy who wrote (519)3/9/1999 7:54:00 AM
From: bertrand bidaud  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3891
 
Steve,
Honestly, I was not following the stock as closely last year as I do now. But I do not remember any bad surprise. Tchurusk was then seen as the man who succeeded in turning the company over. And January was the start of a good uptrend that went until June.
I remember once looking at the stock pattern, and how the stock did better during the first six month that the last.
The fact that results are not published every quarter is surely a reason for that behaviour. Next fall, the company will start publishing quaterly reports, and the stock should have a more traditional pattern I guess.
Regardingthe stock repurchase, I do not know either how much has been effectively reported.
I expect that this will be clarified on the 11th, as well as other questions we have and that remain unanswered :
- contribution of Framatome, Saft, etc... to the result
- more details regarding the strategy (I am still looking for answers on the satellite side, something I believe strongly in - I am also investor in GSTRF and Loral!) even thoug we got some clarification last week.

I understand that next results will be detailed as opposed to a forecast. I think, that last year, Tchuruck met analysts and main shareholders after the meeting to better send his message accross. I hope that it will translate in better visibility, coverage and upgrades.
I was surprised to see not long ago on a web site, that no shareholder had more than 2% of the company. Last year, Fidelity had more than 15% at one point, and Societe Generale the sond largest shareholder, had more than 5%. Fidelity sold in September bringing the stock o its knees. Societe Generale announced last fall, that they would sell some as well. Has it been done? Did ALA bought SocGen shares? If the shareholder structure is so widespread, then... it is interesting. I sent a question on the issue to the investor relation of the company, and they did not answer.
If indeed, there is no shareholder with more than 5%, I am quite sure that Tchuruck will try to convince one. And that could bring the stock up in the process. Well, if you have other information on the shareholder structure, I would be interested.

Tchuruck knows that he should not miss his communication this time, and I think that it will be mainly a "communication exercice". I hope that he will do it well.
I have seen him talking, and he is not a great 'communicator'. That may be seen as a 'no bullshit man', or be at his disadvantage. I do not know the analyst community enough. But I am sure that he has a lot of pressure to deliver.