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Gold/Mining/Energy : WillP Speaks on Winspear -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tomato who wrote (99)	3/9/1999 1:32:00 PM
From: chummer	Respond to of 177

Here is WillP's EPS in Excel Potential Earnings Per Share: Winspear Resources A Rough Estimate Tonnes US Dollar Value Per Tonne of Ore Per Day 100 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280 300 320 340 380 420 500 -$0.07 $0.00 $0.03 $0.06 $0.09 $0.12 $0.15 $0.19 $0.22 $0.25 $0.28 $0.31 $0.38 $0.44 1000 $0.01 $0.14 $0.20 $0.27 $0.33 $0.39 $0.46 $0.52 $0.58 $0.64 $0.71 $0.77 $0.90 $1.02 1500 $0.08 $0.27 $0.36 $0.46 $0.55 $0.65 $0.74 $0.83 $0.93 $1.02 $1.12 $1.21 $1.40 $1.59 2000 $0.15 $0.40 $0.52 $0.65 $0.78 $0.90 $1.03 $1.16 $1.28 $1.41 $1.53 $1.66 $1.91 $2.16 2500 $0.21 $0.53 $0.68 $0.84 $1.00 $1.16 $1.31 $1.47 $1.63 $1.79 $1.95 $2.10 $2.42 $2.73 3000 $0.28 $0.66 $0.85 $1.04 $1.23 $1.41 $1.60 $1.79 $1.98 $2.17 $2.36 $2.55 $2.93 $3.31 3500 $0.34 $0.79 $1.01 $1.23 $1.45 $1.67 $1.89 $2.11 $2.33 $2.55 $2.77 $2.99 $3.43 $3.88 4000 $0.41 $0.92 $1.17 $1.42 $1.67 $1.93 $2.18 $2.43 $2.68 $2.94 $3.19 $3.44 $3.94 $4.45 5000 $0.55 $1.18 $1.49 $1.81 $2.12 $2.44 $2.75 $3.07 $3.38 $3.70 $4.01 $4.33 $4.96 $5.59 6000 $0.68 $1.43 $1.81 $2.19 $2.57 $2.95 $3.33 $3.71 $4.08 $4.46 $4.84 $5.22 $5.98 $6.73 7500 $0.91 $1.85 $2.32 $2.80 $3.27 $3.74 $4.22 $4.69 $5.16 $5.64 $6.11 $6.58 $7.53 $8.47 10000 $1.30 $2.56 $3.20 $3.83 $4.46 $5.09 $5.72 $6.35 $6.98 $7.61 $8.24 $8.87 $10.13 $11.39 Capital CapEx Cost Per Tonne 130 92.86 150 53.57 190 45.24 225 40.18 265 37.86 300 35.71 340 34.69 375 33.48 450 32.14 525 31.25 600 28.57 700 25.00

To: Tomato who wrote (99)	3/9/1999 2:56:00 PM
From: Tomato	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 177

Author: WillP -- Date:1999-03-09 10:39:33 Subject: Tonnage Question In answer to your question about tonnage potential: "Some of my best friends are cone-heads. I'm just not sure I'd want my daughter to marry one." Well...my most remembered foray into the tonnage debate was a reply to 'spence' about the cone sheet theory. Remember? Thundering 15 inch guns? Well, as I intimated last evening...those guns have indeed hit their targets on the north shore. My guess is that at least one of the substantial holes was in (I'm not near my maps) a grid square one range to the north of the previous hits. I've always believed that the tonnage available was at or in excess of 15 million tonnes. I will be willing to enlarge that amount now by some fraction. Yes...double is a fraction. :-) The key...will be finding suitable tonnages in different areas...distant enough to support more independent 1000 tonne per day operations. Making a 3000 TPD operating out of the NW peninsula alone...would be a fairly major task. There won't be any bombs at the Edmonton show & tell. There probably would be a confirming opinion from Turner about the tonnage implications, if you ask him. :-) The bottom line...it's getting harder and harder to place a contrary viewpoint in front of the 'cone-heads'. Again...my point is: You don't need a cone sheet theory...all you need is tonnage. The kimberlite doesn't know why it's there or how it got there. Also, sixteen million tonnes at 3000 tonnes per day is a pretty fair operation. Maybe it was an omen my CFPS table went to 10000 TPD, eh? :-) Important points to remember: #1. You don't need a pipe. Probably don't even want one. It only clouds the issue. I tend to think it's too far down, and too small. If it's large...who cares. It's not important in this scheme of things. If Winspear finds a pencil pipe...it will be received as terrible news. In fact...that would be a non event. #2. You don't need 100 million tonnes. The doubling or tripling of the tonnage from 30 million won't play a role in the future cash flow in all likelyhood. Unless it is so placed to support a greater rate of production. #3. It's going to take money to start mining. That's still not available, and won't be until the project is much further advanced. I'd hate to have a $300 million equity financing at $3.00 per share. Wouldn't you? :-) Yes...nightmare scenarios do come true. But then, I've had worse nightmares than WSP at $8. :-) Regards, WillP Top Reply Author: DiamondWillie -- Date:1999-03-09 10:55:47 Subject: Putting more bulk in the WSP diet.. Will, There was Kaisertalk, I do believe, about the mini-bulk potentially being misleading since it might be a nodule with nonrepresentative kimberlite. Would you think that the bulk sample would be far enough away from the mini-bulk sample to put that argument to rest? But maybe the whole peninsula is a nodule? Or maybe it's a nodule on the pustule of life? ;-) What will shut up the naysayers vis a vis nodules? Top Reply Author: WillP -- Date:1999-03-09 11:34:59 Subject: Ever Been to Harzburg? Ahh, yes. The incredibly rich nodule concept. Well...if the nodule was so large as to skew the 2-3000 tonne sample to be taken there...then that's some nodule, eh? :-) Whoo-Hah! Bring on them thar nodules! But they probably would have had to hit one in Pit 1 as well, since there was one large gem in there too. That was Kaiser's original argument against getting extremely lucky twice. Remember that from all the data available...this dyke appears very consistent. So far. However...I don't think much will shut up the naysayers. The argument could just as easily be made that finding three fifteen to thirty carat stones was a fluke of nature in this bulk sample. Same odds, same problem, after all. Problem is...there has to be an end to extreme points of view. It would be very risky to keep a highly bullish view of a property in the face of mounting bad news. Alberta Diamond Play...are you listening? Similarly...having an intense bearish outlook on a property that has provided nothing but good news...could be damaging to your credibility. These things have to be assessed, and re-assessed in the light of fast breaking news. I did my latest re-assessment last evening. At the top of this thread is a post titled "Doctor". I covered the possible news to be released a bit less than a week ago. Ask yourself...is this still on track? What needs to be adjusted, if anything. There are keys to understanding. Those keys open doors. You just have to be willing to go to different destinations, depending on what doors are opened. I'm still content with the doors that have been opened here. Regards, WillP