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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C.K. Houston who wrote (4396)	3/9/1999 8:19:00 AM
From: flatsville	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

For those of you who like facts and figures courtesy of csy2k: ----------------------------------------------- Facts: semichips.org semichips.org semichips.org There are roughly 2.3B MPUs sold worldwide from 1980-1999. The US owns roughly 70% of these. If .2% fail, it is 4,600,000. US share: 3,220,000 If 2.0% fail, it is 46,000,000. US share: 32,200,000 If 7% fail, its 161,000,000. US share: 112,700,000 IF each MPU is on a network with 10 other devices in such a way that if 1 fails, they all fail, and they are uniformly distributed, then we have (US) 161M networks. If the number is 5 devices per, then divide the network failure rates below in 2. Then 0.2% MPU failures will cause (US) 3.2M/161M = 1.9% of the networks to fail. Then 2.0% MPU failures will cause (US) 32.2M/161M = 20% of the networks to fail. Then 4.0% MPU failures will cause (US) 64.4M/161M = 40% of the networks to fail. Then 7.0% MPU failures will cause (US) 112M/161M = 69.5% of the networks to fail. Talk about exponential growth! God, I hope its a 0.2% failure rate! Still a coward, unarmed, and anonymous, Z -------------------------------------------- Data: irs.ustreas.gov (download it, run it, and then load the excel spreadsheet) In 1996, the breakup of assets of the US were as follows: Transportation and public utilities 2.1T (13.6%) Manufacturing 5.4T (18.8%) Construction 0.289T (1%) Mining 0.302T (1%) Agriculture, Forestry 0.093T (0.3%) Wholesale Retail Trade 2.0T (7%) Services 1.0T (3.5%) Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 17.5T (61%) Total 28.6T (100%) I predict that of the 1.61B MPUs (see posting "Data: MPUs") that will fail, they will be roughly distributed by percentages of the total category assets. If 2.0% of all 1.61B US MPUs fail: Transportation and public utilities 4.4M (13.6%) Manufacturing 6.0M (18.8%) Construction 0.320M(1%) Mining 0.32M(1%) Agriculture, Forestry 0.1M(0.3%) Wholesale Retail Trade 2.26M(7%) Services 1.12M(3.5%) Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 19.6M (61%) Total 32.2M (100%) Although I believe that for MPU failures, the Finance category could lend some % to "transportation and public utilities" and "manufacturing". This would only be a guess, though. I believe similar statistics for the y2k mainframe problem is distributed likewise (lines of code). ------------------------------------------- Note: The link to irs.ustreas.gov failed. I'll try and work with it later to reconstruct a working link. Asset classification for tax purposes may be a very different animal as opposed to asset classification for standard accounting practices in this case. It is difficult to say what this irs breakdown really tells us.