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Technology Stocks : Voice-on-the-net (VON), VoIP, Internet (IP) Telephony -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Gary R. Owens who wrote (2555)3/9/1999 7:29:00 AM
From: Frank A. Coluccio  Respond to of 3178
 
Gary, I think that in both cases the executives have been
forced to admit that we are nearing the nadir of what makes
sense on the product pricing scale, where cost per minute is
concerned in a service venue that continues to leverage AIN
and SS7 fabrics. Pure VoIP is another story, and there are
many discussions we can have as to how other forms of
VoIP can be delievered. But these other forms are not what
we're looking at today. In the PSTN-mimicking genre of
VoIP, you can squeeze only so much before it stops making
sense. Of course, they have to state that there are other
reasons for a number of reasons.

The true promise of FUTURE converged applications is one
reason, and having to put on a good show is the other. It's
like a placeholder that they have to insert in the story,
reminding people where to come back to when the time is
right. It may take a while. Why else would users look
forward to VoIP, otherwise? It certainly doesn't sound any
better, and the current dialing plans with multiple steps for
800s, PINs, etc., are for the most part, counter-intuitive,
and a nuisance.

The T exec is right, though. If you use the DOMESTIC
model that is being used to deliver VoIP in a hybrid fashion,
PSTN is cheaper for the providers to deliver. That doesn't
necessarily mean that it will cost users less, though. The
larger carriers tend to price there services, with "each other"
in mind, not the customer, or costs. That is, to a large degree
they compete within the field of their peers, not necessarily
on the basis of cost plus.

The larger ones, in any event, work this way. The smaller
ones compete on the basis of costs and reaching their
EBITDA objectives. It averages out, because the dominant
ones have the [much-] greater economies of scale, whereas
smaller ones will address cost-plus based margin pricing,
and they are willing to forego the larger margins in favor of
bulk.

What I've stated above about the PSTN vs VoIP being a
wash can be explained if you take into account that they are
using the PSTN anyway on the other sides of the gateways
to originate and terminate the calls. The only thing saving the
startups on the domestic front is the "fairness" role of the
FCC (which is one of those arbitrary things that may go
away at any point without notice) which has waived the
assessing of access and terminating charges for the ITSPs
thus far.

Otherwise, costs would be on a par, more or less, and in
some instances even more expensive to place a single VoIP
call from NY to Miami, say, when you consider the extra
infrastructure that is required for the VoIP components. The
intermediate long distance transmission costs are sometimes
over-stated. This is where compression is used on IP
backbones to leverage, but that leverage is not that great,
when you consider the overall infrastructure costs involved
that are "not" addressed by VoIP.

International? That's another story, and will continue to be,
until the settlement and accounting rates are brought into
focus, and brought down to be more reflective of
cost-based and competitive pricing levels by the world's
PTTs. There will continue to be opportunities there for some
time.

Regards, Frank_C.