Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JungleInvestor who wrote (39343)	3/9/1999 9:50:00 AM
From: Platter	Respond to of 95453

Not bad!..Oil opens at 13.55, down 8 cents.EOM

To: JungleInvestor who wrote (39343)	3/9/1999 10:31:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Jungle Man; good points... << My view is that the main reason for the rise in price is that analysts are beginning to realize that supply and demand are getting back into balance.>> I respectfully disagree. I do not think that is why they are here; I think the ONLY reason they are here is greed and fear - they really do not believe in the fundamentals as yet. They fear getting killed in their short positions if OPEC announces new cuts - so in fear, they are covering their shorts. They are greedy - as they see fast easy MO-Mo money in the run up on the expectations of an OPEC cut, so they are here on the mo-mo run - but make no doubt about it - they WILL leave faster than they came if the direction/sentiment reverses here... Right up untill this recent news and this last 10 -15 trading days prior to the meeting - they did NOT believe the fundamentals - imho; they still don't. I agree with all of the good point you made, yes the supply situation is much, much better than anyone expected - and it actually supports Oil prices above $12 imho. But the Street and Oil futures traders are not sold yet - they are ''trading'' here on OPEC cutting - not the early positive signs of the underlying supply/demand/price fundamentals. As such; I think I get one more chance to ''beat the Street'' . I am taking profits here - but yet holding a 50% -( now much less than 50% as of this am) position at a cost basis (other than VTS) well under current prices. Buying into the selloff and trusting the quadruple bottom of OSX 45-48 allowed me to be ''in'' at that cost basis. I will not get whipsawed by any reversal by the Street on an OPEC disappointment. I actually can still sell on the initial badnews/reversal and still take a small profit - and join the Mo-Mo down on a short position. If OPEC does cut - well shame on me; I took some 10-30-50% profits and still am 50% +/- invested for the ride up.... Guys; their is nothing like experience. Not that I am an old sage of the Oilpatch; but living, breathing and fighting for survival here in the last year - was 3 lifetimes of experience . The major lesson I learned is to go basically against the Street; especially selling their greed and buying their fear. Also; don't get greedy. Yes; go for an occassional HOME RUN - but do it smartly; take the ''big swings for the fences'' when the count is 3-0 in your favor, not 0-2.... Take the Home Run swings - when we bottom out - when the OSX ios at 45, when VTS is $8, when GIFI is $6, when PDE is sub $5 - don't take the swings for the fences when we run up on a ''bet'' on an OPEC meeting ! - Swing for a line drive in the gap here... take a base hit, or a double and sit tight.... Taking some profits here is smart - I am NOT saying sell out completely - if you are in at the bottoms - hold. But, if you want to be active and take advantage of the Street - take profits ! Is this a ''shakeout attempt'' ?- possibly and even probable if the Street has any inside OPEC leanings...but, why gamble - why not take profits - ooops - too late ?? I see a selloff...shakeout attempt ? ... now it's ''GUT CHECK TIME" ! . ...only time will tell