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Technology Stocks : BMC Software -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (639)	3/9/1999 1:50:00 PM
From: Edwarda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1492

Thanks for an authoritative and informed posting, dear Chuzz. The analyst is the step-child of the brokerage business but his parent is the banking side. Quite true. Not only is the analyst aware of the overall IPO market but also of all manner of investment banking pressures that a company can exert. The threat of pulling business away can be a powerful one and there are few analysts that are totally free of this consideration. Andrew Shore displayed pure guts when he recommended selling Sunbeam, for example. The best analysts not only listen to the companies and try to ferret out information that the companies are hiding or simply do not have, they are futurists as well. Chuck Phillips over at Morgan Stanley comes to mind here. He may be blindsided now and then by a quarter, but he really is trying to look ahead. Valuation can be very tricky, but it has to be done, particularly on the buy side. Some of the measures that I believe one should use are P/E to five-year anticipated growth rate (a feat that demands a measure of futurism) and price to revenues as well as discounted cash flows. Having said this, Kurlak should not have been listened to because his overall record stank, missing a five-fold move in TXN, going negative on INTC in the wackiest way. I suspect that he knew his days were numbered and that is why he took off for a hedge fund, from which I suspect he'll get blown out eventually. As for the future of the industry that far out, I'm not going to touch that one yet!