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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (52362)	3/9/1999 5:09:00 PM
From: Roads End	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

EL...The regulars on the Intel thread don't seem to be too worried about a warning. It was pointed out that past warnings occured more in advance and it is now inside of that time frame. It seems to me if anything the shortfall coming from AMD would have been soaked up by increased Intel sales. Steve

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (52362)	3/9/1999 5:21:00 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 97611

The good news:1 Yes, El...read an article (posted by D. Swiss yesterday) that quotes an Intel VP as saying PIII saying are "ahead of plan"...as of 2 days ago.. Also, Swiss called Intel IR end of last week, said they had no intention of warning (at that time) Several analysts, IDC, and even the analyst who-everyone-loves-to-hate-but-unfortunately-has-made-some-good-calls Kumar says that worries are overdone (I heard the interview myself)...Niles came out today and said he thought the rumors were not true...that, in March, Intel was on plan... I really believe that if there was a real problem here, either Niles or Kumar would be all over it... I think these rumors are desperate shorts trying to buy back the stock at lower levels.. Bad news.. Well, Kumar and Niles see no fall-off (besides seasonal) in PC demand, but they do say that the industry's problems are "company-specific"...it is hard to argue that Compaq did not stuff a little 4Q justified or not), and that they have to work a little off this quarter, and it will hurt earnings a bit... Good news.. Looks to me....with the downgrades and earnings cuts....bad news already in the stock... I guess the "joker factor" is the trust issue with CPQ's management..but I think CPQ paid a pretty good price for that already....I think after the non-news from Intel comes out....CPQ will rise above 35 (but below 40)..BUT the market will not pay CPQ a big premium in advance of earnings....the stock, IMO, will not rise too much going into earnings (function of used-credibility, IMO) ...EP is going to have to show the money.... Overall, we are reaching bottom here, IMO....