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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edscharp who wrote (9042)	3/9/1999 6:22:00 PM
From: Cacaito	Respond to of 17367

Remember Solv-EX ? it was shorted till cero. Remember FPAM short it till the shareholders got wallpaper. Remember VVUS, is being shorted like hell even at the $2.5 level, and even right now with the recent up move. The shorter mentality is that the further it drops the more they short, it brings benefit to the first position and the subsequent ones. And the floorless financiers (and bondholders)they short the hell to get more shares, and they love it more when they know good results are coming. This way they get more good shares, and good money in the short position, and the shares from the financing they use them to cover the short position. And some houses will even short outside of the market rules (in the downbid). and some even in extra markets. Terror enough? It is real.

To: Edscharp who wrote (9042)	3/19/1999 3:44:00 PM
From: aknahow	Respond to of 17367

Spoke to Ellen Martin. I now understand why both arms contribute to the pre established target. What follows is not what she said but what I finally understood. Total mortality is the sum of the expected mortality in both arms. If XOMA had said zero deaths were expected in the treatment arm the trial could end sooner since the target would have been less but then if it had not been zero there might not have been sufficient power to prove BPI was effective. So it was in XOMA's best interest to choose the highest valid number that when compared to the expected death rate in the placebo arm would prove the drug effective. Obviously with 20/20 hindsight if ones drug is more effective than one expected the trial takes longer. This is sufficient for me and is my understanding based upon what Martin said, and is not what she said. It is a light bulb that goes on above my head when someone flips a switch. Yes BobK, the light goes out when flipped off. The use of a target mortality from both arms is not unprecedented and is used in trials of drugs for fatal rare diseases.

To: Edscharp who wrote (9042)	3/19/1999 3:53:00 PM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

Ellen is ill. Was sorry I called her. She said Trauma accruals were at 700, and 373 for Meningo. Previously they said about 700, so well now they are 700. Annual report should be out end of April. Mailing date is 20 th. and they will try to get it on sight at same time. Product updates are in hands of lawyers, and should get on web soon. Nothing to be posted about Japan partnering meeting. It was considered an efficient meeting. Dr. Scannon, just back from Europe and Ellen will be checking with his as to what went on.