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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jan Crawley who wrote (44833)3/9/1999 6:40:00 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
Jan,

I covered my short at 129, then bought long. All the nets were down healthy amounts, except Amazon. It seemed people were just waiting for a broker to tell them it is OK to buy.

But even with the main move up, there were a couple of chances to buy at 126 after the 133 high was reached. So the box would work. However, I think the tide has turned to favor the longs. But I know you don't care. Whether the fruit is on a low branch or a high branch, you reach for it.



To: Jan Crawley who wrote (44833)3/9/1999 6:41:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph  Respond to of 164684
 
Investment Highlights:
* We regard the Internet as a global mega-trend, along the lines of the
printing press, the telephone, and the computer, that is changing the way
companies and people communicate, research, buy, sell, and distribute
goods and services, and spend leisure time. We believe it will affect
multiple industry sectors in the world economy over the next decade.
* We believe the Internet will continue to cause the creation and/or
redistribution of hundreds of billions of stock market capitalization in a
variety of sectors—with big winners and big losers.
* We recommend that investors develop a comprehensive, industry-by-industry,
Internet investment strategy, whether direct or indirect, offensive
or defensive. The aim of such an exercise would obviously be to move
money 1) where the growth is, and/or 2) out of the way.
* We agree that the leading pure-play Internet stocks look very expensive,
but we think there are good reasons to own small positions in them anyway.
Among these is the belief that the real “risk” in such open-ended
opportunities is not losing money, but missing big upside.
* We recommend that aggressive investors allocate a small percentage of capital
to a basket of high-quality Internet stocks, such as America Online (AOL, D-1-
1-9, $89 7/8), Yahoo! (YHOO, D-2-1-9, $167 5/16) , and Amazon.com (AMZN,
D-2-1-9, $129 15/16). In deference to the dizzying valuations, we would not
“bet the farm” on any one stock or the sector as a whole.
* We believe the least risky Internet investments are also the most
expensive—the sector leaders. If the “bubble” ever bursts, we believe that
what will be left are a few fast-growing companies with big market
capitalizations—and a lot of wreckage.
* We believe that the Internet stocks will continue to be sentiment-driven and
extraordinarily volatile—and there are clearly favorable and unfavorable
times to buy them (although the only mistake thus far has been to stay
permanently on the sidelines). In the event of additional “boom-and-bust”
cycles (e.g., January), we would actively manage risk exposure.
* We believe that the leading Internet stocks will remain extraordinarily
expensive until the fundamentals beneath them weaken or stop improving
(at which time, we expect significant sector-wide multiple contraction). We
do not believe that valuation alone will bring the stocks down.
Comment
United States
Internet Software & Svcs
9 March 1999
Henry Blodget
First Vice President
Internet / Electronic
Commerce
Overview of Our Internet Investment Philosophy
Reason for Report: Initiating Coverage
Merrill Lynch & Co.
Global Securities Research & Economics Group
Global Fundamental Equity Research Department
RC#30206828
Industr y