To: PaulM who wrote (29661 ) 3/10/1999 5:24:00 AM From: Alex Respond to of 116764
Demand Rises for Platinum, Palladium, and Rhodium And then there's Russia Platinum group metals are providing one of the few glimmers of light in otherwise depressed metals markets. Platinum itself had a run-up last month, but the real action has been in two important associated metals, palladium and rhodium, both of which have trebled in price (in US dollar terms) since the start of 1997. The buoyant markets have also helped share prices of platinum producers. The platinum group metals' strength stems from its use for cleaning up vehicle exhaust emissions in autocatalysts. More stringent standards, particularly in the US, mean demand is set to rise. Shares of South African platinum producers, whose profitability has been helped by a weaker rand, have been especially buoyant. Impala Platinum, for instance, has risen by about 140 per cent since the start of 1997. Mercury Asset Management now has over 13 per cent of its £74m ($119m) Gold & General unit trust invested in South African platinum shares. Supply of the metals is already tight, particularly in palladium, where Russia is the largest producer. Exports from Norilsk, in Arctic Russia, are plagued by physical and bureaucratic delays, although a new long-term export licence for palladium was last week said to have been agreed. Worldwide demand for palladium was 8.2m ounces in 1998, about 3m more than new production, according to Johnson Matthey, and supply deficits are expected to continue into 2000. Analysts disagree whether Russia can or will plug the gap. "Since 1994, Russia has sold about 10m ounces from its stocks to balance increasing demand. However, the size and availability of the remaining stocks remain a state secret and leaves the market in uncertainty," says the latest strategic report from Canadian researchers Metals Economics Group. Expectations of strong demand have already prompted leading palladium producers to expand production, both through new mines and expansion at existing mines. MEG estimates how these expansion plans will add to supply as follows: The 14 major palladium producing mines could increase their capacity from 5.2m ounces in 1999 to 5.6m ounces in 2001. This estimate assumes no increase at Norilsk, whose capacity is left unchanged at 2.5m ounces. Capacity is expected to remain unchanged at Inco's Ontario division and Gold Fields' Northam mine. All others are expected to rise, with notably large capacity increases at North American Palladium's Lac Des Isles Mine (up 120,000 ounces to 200,000 ounces) and BHP/ Zimplats' Hartley mine (up 80,000 ounces to 110,000 ounces). Six potential new mines, most with start-up dates of 2001 or earlier, could add another 800,000 ounces to annual palladium production capacity. The three largest are: Stillwater's East Boulder (384,000 ounces); Zimplats' Ngezi (134,000); Amplats' Bafokeng-Rasimone (100,000). Another five projects are at an early stage of exploration. Strategic Report from Metals Economics Group, PO Box 2206, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada B3J 3C4 The Financial Times, March 10, 1999