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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas G. Busillo who wrote (43595)	3/9/1999 9:29:00 PM
From: J. P.	Respond to of 53903

O.K. we got the drill down pat now, looking forward to 2001 when we can do this again!

To: Thomas G. Busillo who wrote (43595)	3/9/1999 9:44:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Hi Tom: Samsung is on a roll. I've been checking out several of the claims and comments made on various production related topics on the thread of late (as we are trying to rebuild our all-up cost "model" (I hate that word) at MU with respect to 64 Mbit production (we lost some good contacts). I can tell you that one guy here seems to really know his stuff and has saved me a bunch of time with his thoughts, especially on Samsung. Best, Earlie

To: Thomas G. Busillo who wrote (43595)	3/10/1999 10:42:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 53903

TOM, TANKS FER DA LINKS and tanks micron fer too many memories. CNBS bends over backwards to discredit the bears for being ' wrong' but i do not hear them attack the bulls for being " overly optimistic" Mike

To: Thomas G. Busillo who wrote (43595)	3/11/1999 9:56:00 AM
From: Peter Piper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

I've been reading the Micron posts for the past week. It just seems to me that there are a lot of folks shorting this stock. I also remember what MU was like during December last year. It just kept hovering at around 53 dollars as if shorters kept trying to hammer it down everytime it tried to past the 50+ mark. Then all of sudden, boom once it broke, then it really flew. This 55 mile per hour range that micron is stuck in feels similar to back then. So... if there is any break than there would be another short squeeze. Just a feeling though, so tell me if this time it's different. Peter Piper (your electronic plumber) In the meantime, I read this from the Channel magazine Q: What do you think about the fact that Japanese semiconductor manufacturers have remarkably decreased their capital investments? Minamikawa: The majority of Japanese manufacturers, such as Hitachi, Mitsubishi, Fujitsu and Matsushita, decided to close their factories in the U.S. and Europe. In addition, their investments in Japan during 1998 were expected to drop by 30-40 percent from the previous year. I am very much concerned that this will have a negative impact on them. Sooner or later, their current production lines will fall behind, especially as they move toward introduction of 0.21-micron and smaller design rule technologies. From this point of view, it is a questionable strategy for Japanese manufacturers to cut down their investments. On the other hand, Micron in the U.S. resumed its investment on a large scale, even during this serious depression. In 1998 Micron invested US$1 billion in its Idaho factory, and in 1999 it will invest more, to be ready for the shift to 0.25, 0.21 or 0.18-micron design rules. Micron has three other factories, which it bought from Texas Instruments, and is planning to invest an additional US$1 billion to renew these fabs. With these aggressive investments, the monthly production capacity of these factories will be 25 million chips (equivalent to 64 megabit DRAMs) by the end of 1999. Including its other production lines, Micron's total capacity will be more than 40 million chips. The reason why Micron is investing so aggressively while Japanese and Korean manufacturers are very hesitant or even decreasing their investments is clear. Micron believes that the DRAM supply will soon be in short supply. Q: Do you predict that the DRAM supply will become short? Minamikawa: Yes, definitely. Without a doubt, by the third quarter of 1999, the full production of all DRAM manufacturers will not be able to satisfy the demand. The prices for PCs will go down, but the memory capacity of an average PC will increase from 64 megabits in 1998 to 128 megabits in 1999.