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To: Captain Jack who wrote (52432)	3/9/1999 10:20:00 PM
From: John Koligman	Respond to of 97611

On the one hand - is Intel below plan??? John To: Brian Kerecz (29013 ) From: Jeffrey D Tuesday, Mar 9 1999 9:26PM ET Reply # of 29017 Rumors, MSFT rumor that they will settle with U.S. and they go up. INTC rumor about earnings problem and their stock, and other semis, goes down. From Bloomberg we have this. Funny, money manager quoted in the story says it is well known INTC is 10% off of their quarterly plan but Gruntal just reiterated INTC a strong buy today. Guess Gruntal didn't get their phone call. Jeff Top Financial News Tue, 09 Mar 1999, 9:16pm EST U.S. Stocks Fall on Concern Intel Will Report Weak Profit; Disney Declines U.S. Stocks Fall as Intel Declines on Profit Concern New York, March 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell amid speculation that Intel Corp. will warn of disappointing profit. Walt Disney Co. declined on concern revenue from television and movies is falling short of expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 33.85, or 0.4 percent, lower at 9693.76, after coming within 201.07 points of the 10,000 mark. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 2.89, or 0.2 percent, to 1279.84. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 4.68, or 0.2 percent, to 2392.94. Losers outnumbered winners by a 16-to-13 ratio on the New York Stock Exchange. ''It's fairly well known on the Street right now that (Intel is) maybe 10 percent below plan for the quarter,'' said Gary Dvorchak, a money manager for Provident Investment Counsel Inc., which oversees $18 billion in Pasadena, California. ''There would be a pessimistic reaction to their announcement.'' Intel declined to comment. Its shares fell 4 5/16 to 115 5/16, although most trades took place above 118. Advanced Micro Devices Inc., the No. 2 chipmaker, fell 1 7/16 to 17 1/2 after warning it will lose money in the first quarter because of production problems. Intel has been cutting prices to win back sales lost to Advanced Micro's cheaper K-6 chips. >>

To: Captain Jack who wrote (52432)	3/9/1999 10:23:00 PM
From: John Koligman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

On the other hand, how can Intel be below plan??? Victoria Gate has issued her blessing.... John <ggg> To: Jim McMannis (75953 ) From: VICTORIA GATE, MD Tuesday, Mar 9 1999 9:49PM ET Reply # of 75967 To: xxxx (who wrote...) From: VICTORIA GATE, MD Saturday, Mar 6 1999 1:15PM ET xxxxx Thanks (just for you) Intel will NOT warning this qt (take this to the bank) vg

To: Captain Jack who wrote (52432)	3/9/1999 10:33:00 PM
From: John Koligman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Finally, the 'true bear' outlook... John To: John Dally (51065 ) From: Earlie Tuesday, Mar 9 1999 8:56PM ET Reply # of 51088 John: It looks like the wire services had a bit of trouble with the IDC commentary. Three different interpretations appeared before they got it straight. I'm getting a kick out of the slow retreat the 1998 global PC unit figure is experiencing. Initially it was reported as 92-94 million. Later, it faded to 90.0 million. Now it is 89.0 million. In the fall we went to print with a forecast of 85-87 million, so even though there were plenty of jibes, as it turns out, we were very close (and getting closer by the day) (g) With respect to Intel, here are some figures that we think will provide "near-as-damn-it" usefulness. Figure that Intel built about 30.0 million micros and sold 25.0 million of them in Q4. Unfortunately, many of those that reside in the "sold" category got as far as the inside of a PC, but never made it to an end user, so they are really a deterrent to new micro sales. Then too, another percentage of those "sold" micros are still in the spot markets (see earlier posts about Intel availability). Adding this up, we have big inventories at Intel, in PCs (in both the retail and corporate channels) and in the spot market. YUK. Will some of these micros be returned to Intel? I don't know, even though we have tried our darndest to get our hands on this info. In a way, it doesn't really matter, as they act as a block to further sales by Intel, no matter where they end up. Intel will warn, or the Milberg Weiss leaches will enjoy a field day. Retail commentary that we have gathered so far in 1999 indicates a full-blown disaster is underway. Not the kind of hard numbers that some may require, but a serious deterioration from last Winter (which was itself very weak). Best, Earlie