Here is an interesting article:
IDC FORECASTS HEALTHY WORLDWIDE Q1 1999 PC DEMAND WITH 14.1%
Unit Growth over Q4 1998
My favorite part is the one i have highlighted, all of
them are ATI biggest volume customers.
1999 Worldwide Unit Growth Now Set at 14.3%, Dollar Growth to Check in
at 4.8%
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., March 9 /PRNewswire/ -- Unit volume in the
worldwide PC market this quarter is expected to grow year-over-year
14.1%, according to data released today by International Data
Corporation (IDC). Following a well-established seasonal pattern,
volume in Q1 will decline 14.7% from Q4 1998. As throughout 1998,
growth in Q1 will be led by the vibrant U.S. and Western European
markets, with Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) showing continuing signs
of a rebound. IDC's new worldwide forecast for 1999 projects PC volume
at 103.2 million on growth of 14.3%.
Signs of ongoing price pressure in the PC market are reflected in IDC's
new outlook on 1999 dollar growth, which projects the value of PC
shipments will rise 4.8% to $178.4 billion. "This low-growth scenario
illustrates the continued downward migration of consumer and commercial
desktop as well as portable PC prices," said Bruce Stephen, IDC Group
Vice President of Worldwide PC research. "It also explains why PC
vendors are moving at a frenetic pace to diversify their business
models and revenue sources."
The Q1 worldwide market is being led by strong consumer markets in the
United States, Western Europe, and Asia/Pacific, including Japan. In
the United States, consumer interest in inexpensive PCs has extended
beyond the holiday shopping season as low-cost vendors look to move
sizable numbers of units. Y2K spending on PCs and a resilient portable
PC market are also expected to add to the market's performance this
quarter.
IDC believes the United States will post the strongest year-over-year
growth rate (19.3%) of any major region this quarter. The Q4-Q1
sequential decline in the United States is forecast at 11.8%.
After a sizzling 1998, the Western European market is expected to
downshift in 1999. IDC projects the region will post Q1 year-over-year
unit growth of 15.1%, with sequential volume down a typical 23.4%. Key
drivers in the region include continued momentum for consumer purchases
fueled by post- Christmas interest in low-cost PCs, the portable PC
market, and a strengthening German economy.
Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) appears to be off to a good start,
following slightly negative growth in 1999. With most of the region's
big markets -- China, India, and Australia -- looking healthy, the
first quarter is expected to show 14% year-over-year growth. On a
sequential basis, volume is expected to decline 6.7%. IDC is observing
very strong consumer market growth in China and India due to falling
prices and extremely low penetration. The impressive year-over-year
growth projected for Q1, however, follows a very weak 1998 in which
many country markets within the region contracted.
Japan is showing further signs of waking up and is currently undergoing
a "soft" rebound, largely based on strong consumer demand. Apple's iMac
continues to draw strong consumer attention. Prices on older PC models
dropped in January, and a slew of new offerings hit the market in
February. Year-over-year Q1 1999 unit growth is projected at 6%.
Unlike other regions, Japan is expected to show positive sequential
growth (6.2%) this quarter.
Vendors
IDC believes the vendors that will likely gain market share on a
sequential basis this quarter will be those pegged to consumer growth
in the United States, Western Europe, and Asia/Pacific, including
Japan. In the United States, Gateway 2000, Compaq, eMachines, and
possibly Apple will benefit from consumer growth. In addition, the
impressive expansion of the Asia/Pacific market, especially China,
should allow well-positioned vendors like Legend (ranked #15 in 1998
worldwide unit market share) to gain share. A sliver of sequential
growth may also be possible for vendors with a primary market
concentration in Japan (NEC Japan, Sony, Toshiba).
Table 1
Top 5 Vendors, US PC Shipments, Fourth Quarter 1998
(Thousands of Units)
Q498 Q4 1998 Market Q4 1997 Market Growth
Rank Vendor Shipments Share Shipments Share 1998/97
1 Compaq 1,949 18.1% 1,686 19.0% 16%
2 Dell 1,375 12.8% 879 9.9% 56%
3 Gateway 981 9.1% 739 8.3% 33%
4 IBM 978 9.1% 877 9.9% 12%
5 Hewlett-Packard 777 7.2% 599 6.8% 30%
Others 4,090 46.1% 4,701 43.7% 15%
All Vendors 10,762 100.0% 8,870 100.0% 21%
Shipments are branded factory shipments and exclude OEM sales for
all vendors.
Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods. Data for Compaq
shipments include Digital Equipment shipments; data for Acer includes
Texas Instruments.
Table 2
Top 5 Vendors, Worldwide PC Shipments, Fourth Quarter 1998
(Thousands of Units)
Q498 Q4 1998 Market Q4 1997 Market Growth
Rank Vendor Shipments Share Shipments Share 1998/97
1 Compaq 4,194 15.3% 3,592 15.2% 17%
2 IBM 2,677 9.7% 2,321 9.8% 15%
3 Dell 2,315 8.4% 1,470 6.2% 58%
4 Hewlett-Packard 1,649 6.0% 1,460 6.2% 13%
5 Packard Bell NEC 1,196 4.4% 1,246 5.3% -4%
Others 15,460 56.2% 13,575 57.4% 14%
All Vendors 27,491 100.0% 23,664 100.0% 16%
Shipments are branded factory shipments and exclude OEM sales for
all vendors.
Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods. Data for Compaq
shipments include Digital Equipment shipments; data for Acer includes
Texas Instruments.
IDC
International Data Corporation is the information technology
industry's most comprehensive resource on worldwide IT markets, trends,
products, vendors, and geographies. IDC provides data, analysis, and
advisory services to the world's leading IT suppliers as well as IS
professionals in finance, insurance, entertainment, advertising,
consumer goods, and publishing. IDC's research and opinions are based
on the results of more than 300,000 end-user surveys, in-depth
competitive analysis, broad technology coverage, and strategic
analysis. IDC is committed to providing global research with local
content through its 500 analysts in more than 40 countries worldwide.
Additional information on IDC can be found on its Web site at
idc.com.
IDC is a division of International Data Group, the world's leading IT
media, research, and exposition company.
All product and company names may be trademarks or registered
trademarks of their respective holders.
SOURCE International Data Corporation
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