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Technology Stocks : Fastcomm FSCX (6 1/8), base now complete. Big Upside. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Ableson who wrote (741)	3/12/1999 2:11:00 PM
From: LouisG	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 802

A competitive product is not enough of a reason to take on the risk of investing in this company. They need to sell it for less than it takes to build it, and increase sales fom a measly $132K a week. The old Alcatel OEM contract had an estimated value of $75M over 3 years ($481K/wk). What ever happened to that deal? FRADS are being skipped over by routers for VPN's and WAN's. Where are the SALES going to come from? Their 40% gross margin isn't bad, but we need to know how sales will grow. A simple spreadsheet approach shows with a 10% sequential sales growth qtr-to-qtr, 40% gross margin, fixed SG&A, FSCX will not turn a profit until mid-2001. They will lose .24 in '99, .12 in '00, and make .06 in '01. So, in 2001 the stock price MAY hit $3.00. Not much of a upside considering all the risk. You may very well see $11 - in late 2002 IF they can maintain 2001's momentum. Product emotion won't move the stock price-numbers will.