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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (29685)	3/10/1999 1:07:00 PM
From: Stephen O	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

If the grid is down because of Y2K it will be for 2 days max, probability 1% IMO. Y2K is way way overblown.

To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (29685)	3/10/1999 1:10:00 PM
From: scotty	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116762

Ole 49r....Rogers has been correct on oil and gold....Bond direction is probably the most difficult thing to predict.....scotty

To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (29685)	3/10/1999 1:42:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

' If I had enough cash to buy gold coins--how would I do it? asked in the TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) Q&A Forum -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I have visions of going into sleazy pawnshops, or buying from suspicious folk on the Internet. I'm a real newbie at this type of thing. Have any of you regulars had any experience at this? Beware. . .my spam detector is Y2k compliant. Thanks! -- FM (vidprof@aol.com), March 10, 1999 Answers I started buying coins April/May 1998. I found a small ad in the Wall Street Journal for Blanchard's. They are the biggest company in the US selling coins. They sell at very low margins. I have enjoyed bringing them up to speed on Y2K. I bought lots of junk silver at 5% margin. Now it is closer to 50% margin. If you get the Wall Street Journal, there are ads for coin dealers on pages A2&A3, as well as about page C11 (where ever they have the box labeled "cash prices" -- the last item on that list is the value of $1000 face value junk silver) Some of the small ads now mention Y2K or "getting ready for 2000". If you -- gold and silver bug (bought some@Blanchard's.com), March 10, 1999. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FM: Let your fingers do the walking: check you yellow pages under coin dealers. That way, you can check out the shop, its locale, etc. Try to buy in Illinois, no sales tax. You pay just a bit over spot, no taxes, so a one oz eagle can run just about $300. Not a bad price at all. If you don't like the dealer, leave. -- have q's (answer@here.com), March 10, 1999. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I've read that 1/10 oz. gold coins would be best for barter if things got really bad. More trades per oz. Not as good of a value as whole oz coins though. I've started to buy them and some junk silver. would love to hear other opinions on this. -- A little worried to leave real address (call me@ paranoid.com), March 10, 1999. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'm going to be driving through Illinois later this month, could you provide me with names and numbers of any dealers?? Thanks! -- Diane (DDEsq2002@juno.com), March 10, 1999. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Well you're a bit late for the good prices on fractional coins 1/10, 1/4, and 1/2 ounce coins, but if you are a new person to gold try Ron Paul Coin at 1-800-982-7070 or Camino Coin of Burlingame, CA (same office, different desk) and ask for Burt Blumert. I ahve never used Blanchard's but they have a spotless reputation. Actually, go to the-moneychanger.com and read ALL of their texts for info on coins. That will teach you BUNCH of info, very important. I don't have my article on silver and gold at my website yet, I'll try to put that up there later today home.earthlink.net After you read the stuff from The Moneychanger you'll be in much better shape. I have ordered stuff from The Moneychanger and they are fine and have a good reputation, but personally I like Burt's ordering system better. -- Ken Seger (kenseger@earthlink.net), March 10, 1999. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A few more points. Any sales from out of your state and mailed to you should be sales tax free (so far). Big question on gold and silver is this, what do you plan to do with it? If you are planning to purchase goods and services during a crises, you might be really disappointed at the prices. During a crises the prices go WAY up do to the uncertianty factor. Interesting hisorical example, during the 1920's hyper inflation in Germany, one ounce of gold would buy more goods and services in London or Paris than in Berlin. Gary North's idea of staying out of the economy during a crises (just live off of your stockpile) and save precious metal for spending and rebuilding AFTER things settle down is good advice, ie. true money is a storehouse of value. One big advantage of gold and silver is that it might be able to buy your freedom or purchase goods and services that you didn't think you would need, like an apendectomy, so putting some money into gold and silver AFTER you have purchased your survival supplies might be a good idea. I would guess that silver would be used for small common items, bread, ammo, gasoline, etc. and gold would be for big ticket items, guns, large propane tanks, surgery, etc. As far as profit goes, you might find that extra supplies might be more profitable than gold and silver. The hazard to this is theft and confiscation (governments stockpile, subjects hoard) since gold and silver is easiesr to hide. -- Ken Seger (kenseger@earthlink.net), March 10, 1999. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ken, good thoughts. I had planned on using the gold to protect some assets, but thought I should purschase the smaller coins just incase I need to barter with them. Since I do have plenty of cash set aside, should I buy larger, say 1/2 or whole oz, coins and use the silver for barter? yours or any other thoughts would be welcome. thanks -- Too Scared (call me@paranoid.com), March 10, 1999. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ken; Talk about succinct! What a great quote: "governments stockpile, subjects hoard ". Thanks for that one and keep them coming. -- Watchful (seethesea@msn.com), March 10, 1999. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I suggest you pay cash at local coin shops. NO paper trail, remember what happened in the 1930's with Gold confiscation.... -- (kozak@athenet.net), March 10, 1999. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Diane: We've worked with Waukegan Coin and Supply at 1417 N. Lewis Ave in Waukegan,IL, which is about 10? mi south of the WI/Il border near the lake. Their # is (847) 623-0445. Say you buy 10 ounces at a bit over $3000. Wouln't you rather walk out of the shop with it in your pocket than fretting over mail delivery? To me, 3G's is a lot of hard earned money! Figure the savings on the tax, at say, 6.25%. The shop in Waukegan is rather odd, be prepared. A man-bastion where they still smoke indoors! The big guy's got quite a cough! BTW, the store is in the middle of a 50's shopping strip. The price over spot is the same whether you buy 1 or 1/10 oz. Doesn't make sense to buy 1/10. Gold should be bought, IMHO, as an investment. A vehicle to park your money, not as a barter item. Good luck. Where're you heading? -- have q's (answer@here.com), March 10, 1999. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contribute an answer to "If I had enough cash to buy gold coins--how would I do it?" -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- timebomb2000@yourdon.com

To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (29685)	3/10/1999 2:45:00 PM
From: long-gone	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

Did not say I agreed with him, only missed hearing what he had to say. At least, he ain't no parrot the ideas which pop outta that mouth are his own. But as for <<motorbike won't operate post Y2K>> think you ought to check out that BMW a little closer, it is a slightly older model - may even be one with points vs electronic ignition. Check again...

To: IngotWeTrust who wrote (29685)	3/10/1999 3:54:00 PM
From: Alex	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

The Debt Bubble The US stock market has just reached new record highs, as measured by the major indices, with valuations that are in no way supported by the earnings of the underlying businesses. Share prices are, in fact, supported by debt. The expansion of debt has created the liquidity needed to spur the markets to their current unrealistic levels and these levels can only be maintained through a continued expansion of debt. In fact, to prevent a collapse in the bubble of debt that lies beneath the sky-high share prices, the rate at which new debt is created must be continually increased. Failure to do so would cause the share prices to collapse and economic growth to disappear. In today's monetary system, when a bank makes a loan the total supply of money in existence increases by the amount of the loan. By the same token when a bank loan is re-paid or defaulted on, the total supply of money is correspondingly reduced. In other words, debt creation and repayment (or default) affects the value of all the existing currency units. When the rate of debt repayment plus debt default climbs above the rate of new debt creation, then the total supply of money will begin to contract and asset prices to fall. The US Federal Reserve is now trying to dampen the speculative fire which has been burning in the stock market by suggesting that maybe things are moving just a little too fast and that the next move in official interest rates might be up. They can't actually raise interest rates because that would burst the debt bubble, but they can talk (very carefully) about raising rates. Greenspan is once again professing a concern regarding potential inflation down the track, as though the US has not already experienced rampant inflation over recent years. What he is really concerned about is 'bad inflation'. 'Bad inflation' is when the prices of the things you buy (consumables) go up, whereas 'good inflation' is when the prices of the things you own (investments) go up. The US has experienced a severe bout of 'good inflation' and now the concern is that the rapidly increasing money supply will lead to a bout of 'bad inflation'. In either case the root cause is an increase in the quantity of money or, more to the point, an increase in the amount of debt. Many people appear to be under the impression that real interest rates in the US have been high in recent years, thus giving the Fed scope for further interest rate reductions. This opinion arises because the CPI has remained low and real interest rates tend to be calculated by deducting the CPI from the nominal interest rate. This then begs the question - if real interest rates are high, why have we seen such huge gains in the stock market? After all, high real interest rates choke economic growth and make debt repayment more costly, not exactly the ideal environment for a massive credit-fueled blow-out in share prices. This conundrum comes about due to a false premise – the belief that real interest rates can be determined by subtracting the official government measure of inflation from nominal interest rates. When we use the only true and objective measure of inflation, the rate of increase in the supply of money, we see that the US has actually been enjoying negative real interest rates for the past 2 years. Negative, or at least very low, real interest rates facilitate the formation of debt and asset bubbles. This was the Hong Kong experience during the 2 years leading up to August 1997, and it is now the US experience. When nominal interest rates in Hong Kong were increased substantially in defense of its currency, leading to a corresponding rise in real interest rates, stock and property prices quickly fell by 50%. Falling asset prices do not, by themselves, affect the money supply. Apart from the small component of the total money supply that circulates as cash, all money resides within the banking system. When I buy shares in a listed company I am not, contrary to popular belief, putting money into the stock market. The money required to pay for the shares is transferred from my account to someone else's account, but the money remains within the banking system. If the shares I have bought subsequently plunge in value the total supply of money is unchanged, although my ability to borrow and spend may now be somewhat impaired. The point is that there is a large difference between deflation (a contraction in the supply of money) and wealth destruction. However, it is clear that in a debt-based monetary system the two are inexorably linked since falling asset prices reduce the collateral available as backing for both new and existing loans, causing a contraction of credit and debt defaults. Where a giant credit expansion has resulted in unsustainably high asset prices, the challenge for the monetary authorities is to slow the growth of debt without inflicting a devastating injury to the stock and property markets. This is an impossible challenge as there are limits (as yet to be defined in the US in 1999) to the amount of debt that can be supported by the incomes of the borrowers, and any contraction in credit (money supply) would inject a dose of 'realism' into the markets. Eventually, the limits are always reached. Credit always begins to tighten and asset prices to fall at some point following a prolonged credit expansion. However, the current expansion is not a normal occurrence, it is a bubble. As such, any tightening in the credit markets and / or fall in asset prices would most probably lead to a total collapse (refer to Japan post-1989). The consequences of the expansionary actions of the past few years must therefore be avoided by 'loosening' monetary policy even more in the hope of offsetting the ever-growing repayment burden on the existing debt and postponing the inevitable collapse. Whether or not the escalating supply of 'easy money' is successful in buying time, it is likely to bring about a cycle of 'bad inflation' characterised by rising commodity prices. Any serious decline in asset prices will be met with ever-increasing buckets of money until, eventually, prices are forced upwards. At the end of the day the purchasing power of the national currency will be traded for the short-term appearance of prosperity. In today's fiat money world, all asset price bubbles and all economic crises are debt related. Money and debt are not just linked, they are effectively the same thing. This means that changes in the amount of debt ripple through the entire economy and, during the expansion phase, cause asset prices to reach unrealistically high levels. During the contraction phase (stay tuned) asset prices become as under-valued as they were over-valued in the preceding cycle. Oscillations between over-valuation and under-valuation are not a product of our current monetary system, but the extreme size and high frequency of these oscillations certainly is. Although such wildly volatile markets may be nirvana to short-term traders, the immense destruction of wealth that occurs when the expansion finally ends is devastating to the real economy and the wage-earning population. Milhouse Hong Kong 9 March 1999 gold-eagle.com