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Biotech / Medical : Aviron -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scott mcdowell who wrote (461)	3/17/1999 10:23:00 PM
From: Cacaito	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 645

Bear story: $100 million in bonds or something like that at 7.5% annual interest (confirm the interest please), this is a lot of cash for the company, but this bondholders could act as depressors of the stock price (I am not sure how but it seems to involved a complex maneuver with short positions-covered with bonds, I do not know if it is even feasible). The studies in adults and elderly people are still as good as the arm shots, they are also looking into combination with the current armshots since the shots elicit poor responses in the elderly. In the elderly, they are still trying to figure out the full safe version (it can reproduced in the lungs and give pneumonia to some of the elderly, I do not know if this problem was fixed, but they were working on it). Time to market 1: more data needed, it will depend a lot in the current trials, due for spring results. Time to market 2: the construction of a plant and FDA approval of it must be on time for the fall, together with actual approval of the product. This is an awesome task ahead, failure lurks in this projects , the less of it could be just plain delay (But they seem to have the cash from the bond issue and some more money for a 2ry offering already done, it seems enough cash, run out of schedule=run out of cash, and back to more financing. Competition 1: oral drugs are not preventive, they work fair at best, no problem. Competition 2: Today news from one of the big Injected marketeers (Pasteur?) that they are looking into "jet injections" presumably less pain than regular shots. Insurers and HMO: will they pay? will the people preference be strong enough to change to nasal? In infants and children they will not have a lot of problem, the other groups is less so. Is there a USA? Europe? World ? market willing to pay? Probably yes since influenza shots are already big business, will the market grow? at least in children yes, adults maybe. Other technology: 1 some are testing nasal vaccines but seems to be a difficult field, 2 How good is patent protection? 3 Oral vaccines against influenza are in the beginings. Enviromental: The chinese are building stock markets and the breeding grounds of the new influenza strains are the combination duck-pig-people farms all together in a soup. If the chinese stop this soup business (I mean the duck-pig-people farms)then influenza could become a tame virus. In the meantime millions of chicken were killed, and the ducks are the culprits. Logisticals: the vaccine is so good that one needs only one in a lifetime then the market shrinks 95% inmediately(or ilogisticals).