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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (8259)	3/10/1999 5:27:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Respond to of 9980

Hello Robert, NPL's are still all over 10% of outstandings for almost every country in the region, and they're rising in China, Taiwan & the Philippines. Sure its great to be first on board the gravy train, but does the risk outweigh the reward? Personally, I'd wait until both positive growth has been registered in Korea and NPL's are totally written off before investing there. I wouldn't touch any other emerging markets because the political situations are too shaky. As for Japan, it is obviously impressive that the blue chip cos. have all announced various restructurings, but the problem there is also psychological so I wouldn't venture into anything yet. I'd wait for 2 Qs of growth in Japan, 1 for Korea and wouldn't touch any other pac-rim market with a 10-foot pole, except maybe Australia for a resources play. I hope I'm wrong about Indonesia, but the situation there is potentially explosive leading up to the June elections. Paul

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (8259)	3/10/1999 5:47:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Re: Investing in Japan via symbol:JOF Robert, Just in case you missed my earlier idea to Bosco, here's an idea for you: Message 8210697 My guess is that most of their investments are below book value. I've read Fleckenstein for about 19 months now, and this has to be a bargain basement investment for his to dare mention it. If you get a chance to check it out, please post opinions. I'm sure a lot of Asia Forum readers would like your opinion. Back to your post. I like your 1 and 2 reasons for a possible recovery. But what does your number 3 mean? It probably means number of containers. Does, "traffic," mean both incoming and outgoing? If so, this doesn't tell us much about a recovery, does it? Do you have a link? Thanks, MikeM(From Florida)