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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MythMan who wrote (24327)	3/10/1999 5:03:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

look at that crap -> 'no plans now' <- -- ha ha ha ...I don't care if they warn or not -- they won't have to in order for the stock to tank ...

To: MythMan who wrote (24327)	3/10/1999 5:23:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Respond to of 86076

Obvoiusly some one is worried enough to get some protection before March perspiration: -------------- MODI PHILIP MORRIS COS INC Apr 1999 45 CALL 7/16 0 26,973 OEYOH S&P 100 INDEX Mar 1999 640 PUT 61/4 21/2 10,062 OEYOE S&P 100 INDEX Mar 1999 625 PUT 23/4 -15/8 8,698 AOECS AMERICA ONLINE INC Mar 1999 95 CALL 13/4 +5/8 7,349 CPQCZ COMPAQ COMPUTER CORP Mar 1999 321/2 CALL 3/4 -11/16 7,326 OEYCH S&P 100 INDEX Mar 1999 640 CALL 12 +25/8 7,272 TBHDO TELEBRAS HOLDRS ADS REP 1 DEP Apr 1999 75 CALL 41/4 +1/2 6,589 CBSCU CBS CORP Mar 1999 371/2 CALL 1/2 +1/8 6,135 TBHCO TELEBRAS HOLDRS ADS REP 1 DEP Mar 1999 75 CALL 19/16 +11/16 5,771 OSXOK OIL SERVICE SECTOR INDEX Mar 1999 55 PUT 3/8 -13/4 5,610 OEYOF S&P 100 INDEX Mar 1999 630 PUT 35/8 -15/8 5,596 WLADN WARNER LAMBERT CO Apr 1999 70 CALL 41/4 -1 5,176 MBKHC BANK OF TOKYO-MITSUBISHI LTD Aug 1999 15 CALL 11/8 +9/16 5,096 RAQDF RATIONAL SOFTWARE CORP Apr 1999 30 CALL 13/8 -3/8 5,074 OEYOG S&P 100 INDEX Mar 1999 635 PUT 43/4 -21/8 5,010 OSXUI OIL SERVICE SECTOR INDEX Sep 1999 45 PUT 31/8 -21/8 4,746 IVXUV IVAX CORP Sep 1999 121/2 PUT 17/16 +3/16 4,531 OEYCI S&P 100 INDEX Mar 1999 645 CALL 9 +21/4 4,477 SZPOO S&P 500 INDEX Mar 1999 1275 PUT 11 -41/8 4,342 CPQOE COMPAQ COMPUTER CORP Mar 1999 25 PUT 3/16 +1/8 4,200

To: MythMan who wrote (24327)	3/10/1999 7:55:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

MM: Whether the company warns or not, INTC is going to bleed during the next 2 quarters. Even slick accounting will be hard pressed to mask the kind of problems INTC is experiencing. Last quarter, Intel simply produced too many chips (say 30.0 million) and sold too few (say 25.0 million). Of those they sold, a bunch did not flush through to actual end purchasers of PCs, so the old toilet bowl has a big tennis ball in place. Nasty black bears love blocked toilet bowls, especially when the market doesn't see the fast-rising water (and other) levels. (g) We think a maximum of 85-87 million PC units could be sold this year (1999), so let's be nice and round it upward to 90 million (1998 will end up at 88 to 89 million). Now let's see,...INTC can produce 30 plus million micros per quarter without straining, and AMD is rattling along at 5.0 million per quarter. Don't even bother adding in Cyrix, et al. A bit of excess production capacity you say? Oh my. Now let's plug in the fact that much of Q1, 1999 has been devoted to working the old plunger to force that tennis ball down the pipe. It's been a SLOOOOOW quarter for PC sales, so reckon on "reduced" (or worse) shipments from INTC for this quarter, and much of what does get shipped as merely a clearing of the lights in the warehouses of PREVIOUSLY (Q4) PRODUCED micros. Yuk! Few situations produce more pain than excess manufacturing capacity during a downturn. Additionally, the need to regain lost market share from AMD has caused greater price cuts than anyone in Intel expected. There is no way on God's little green planet that INTC can maintain its revenues or its margins, given the above nasty situation. Warn or not, the "church" has taken a missile through the main entrance this quarter. Lambs ensconced therein will take some serious flack. Best, Earlie .