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Strategies & Market Trends : Mutuals:AIMing For Profits--Invest In Best -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: LemonHead who wrote (974)3/11/1999 10:38:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy  Respond to of 4158
 
Hi Keith, Rather than "when" how about "how much" as a point of decision making? Currently the Idiot Wave is suggesting that we start new stock investments with about 49% Cash Reserve, but that might be a bit heavy for an index fund. The IW is asking for 33% Cash for diversified mutual funds.

I think the thing to do is to look at the all time high of the N-100 from last year and look at how far it fell during the correction last Fall. That should give us a way of judging how big the cash reserve should have been at the peak of the market. Then, we can give thought to whether the Stock or Mutual Fund reserves suggested for the IW are closer.

With UOPIX, which is based upon the N-100 but souped up with options, I'm using the "stock" recommendation, but it has about a 2X movement compared to the underlying index.

Best regards, Tom