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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (24212)	3/11/1999 2:20:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Purely a short term macro play.. I think the news I have for Oil we may be able to play a spike up above 63 on OSX. I would like RIG Total Texaco SLB to be closely watched with a target of 20% move in interim term. The OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers are so much moved with this article on Oil in Economist posting bleak future for Oil that they have decided in tacit agreement to cut supplies, just a 5 million barrel cut and with low US reserves we can see a spike up although I don't see that 'cartelisation' and oil uoutput cuts is a long term phenomenon, the prices will resume the trend down as we have anamoly here in this production and pricing structure , you just cannot have the ME produce 1/3rd of total oil production of the globe when their reserves are at 66% of total known reserves. The cost of one barrel in ME will be 2$ whereas Russia production cost is 7 to 11$, but the moment oil prices go up , cash strapped non-opec econoies will cheat, this is the classic prisoners dilimma and we cannot escape it, free market economy is based on certain established principles of greed and fear, in case of OIl one needs to keep all of this in back of our mind, and we trade accordingly for the spike up but a break of OSX below 54 will lead me to get out of all oil stocks longs. Unocal is one great stock I want to work on, every ! $ rise in Oils leads to a rise in price by same amount..