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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RSIVA who wrote (17629)	3/11/1999 7:54:00 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74651

RSIVA, I don't expect a settlement until just before a ruling. This is because the DOJ is confident about victory---meanwhile MSFT believes it will score an eventual legal victory. Furthermore, it is believed the DOJ will ask for more than what they asked just before the case started and those negotiations had obviously failed. I think the key will be MSFT's performance in the rebuttal phase next month. I believe they will go in to that well prepared. Many believe that MSFT's witnesses' problems was the lack of preparation (not to mention the lack of time given by Judge jackson). This rebuttal phase can improve this in my opinion. Once their witnesses start talking about Apple, Linux, or Netscape, it will be obvious that MSFT faces many threats. Then the serious negotiations will begin. The states along with the DOJ will then be prepared to talk about a realistic settlement. Furthermore, there are too many states with their own agendas that a settlement cannot please them all---ie as a collective group, they will demand too much. If MSFT had to deal only with the DOJ, a settlement could just be around the corner. Personally, I think the government will try to negotiate a settlment as will MSFT. Otherwise, 3 years to get to a final settlment is too long for the DOJ, which appears to be concerned about competition in the industry. Remember one thing---all the courtroom threatrics that grab all of the headlines will be a thing of the past. The objective of the DOJ was not just to win the case but also create public opinion against MSFt so that other companies' will improve also. I bet you that IBM, Novell, Sun Microsystems, Netscape don't want this thing to end and will put pressure on their home states to demand a lot from MSFT to compensate for their own lack of marketing power. Judge Jackon told the lawyers to use the recess wisely. What will he say after the conclusion of the trial phase. " use your time very wisely, please" That much you can bet on. It will be a sign to the government, that they start a realistic discussion not the break up of MSFT or licensing of Windows code etc.. In my opinion, contrary to what so called experts are saying, Microsoft is in a great bargaining position. BTW--Why should MSFT give in on many issues when Judge Jackson may not be giving a harsh judgement himself. Believe or not, I trust Judge Jackson in coming to a fair resolution and an appropriate remedy if one applies. I don't trust the state lawyers because i think they have agenda given to them by the companies "resident" in their states---ex IBM in New York. This is why the DOJ should be given the authority to negotiate on the states' behalf, and we should see a settlement very quickly but I doubt a state like New York will go for it.