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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Aitch who wrote (52710)	3/11/1999 7:48:00 AM
From: Kenya AA	Respond to of 97611

Hi Aitch: Long time - no meet. I know you asked victor, but I'll give you my take on the IM news. The exact same thing happened last quarter - IM reported great numbers and record sales BUT they were below expectations. Take a look at IM's chart - you can see the day it happened very clearly. Now CPQ, at the time, had no reaction to the IM news - I think because everything was going well for CPQ at the time and there were no worries about CPQ's Q4. How will it affect CPQ this time??? Don't know. It does ad fuel to the fire about CPQ warning, but perhaps it's already built into the price. We'll see. K

To: Aitch who wrote (52710)	3/11/1999 7:53:00 AM
From: rupert1	Respond to of 97611

Hi Aitch: I hope to double up at some point and bring my average at least down to $36. I bought at $41, $35 1/4 and $32 3/4 and my average is about $38 1/2 (not counting my profits taken at $50 and $48). If $30 is the bottom and I buy then I can get it to $34. Like everybody else I'm trying to figure out whether $30 will hold or it will go lower. (Previously I was of the opinion that a correction of 45% from the high should be the outside maximum and that would occur only if there was huge momentum and it would be intraday rather than closing. 45% would take us to about $28+. 50% would be $25.5.) I think it is probably a sign of the bottom that I am even contemplating these numbers. My best guess is that bottom is $30 with maybe a brief visit to the $29's. But it is a guess. It doesn't actually make sense to me that we are where we are - so it is hard to find reasons to go lower - except momentum and panic. I don't read the Ingram Micro announcement as a warning. Read their comments about record sales in the 1st quarter and "Ingram Micro expects net sales for the 1999 first quarter to be between $6.5 and $6.7 billion, growing 26 to 30 percent over the same period last year. The company expects net income for the quarter to range from $40 to $45 million or $0.27 to $0.30 per share prior to any one-time costs for reductions in work force." Like everybody else it is adapting to the changing market and especially to the onset of direct selling. In so far as the annoucnmeent refers to the difficulty of guaging the effect of YK2 it will contribute to the general unease which always appears during the pre-earnings season.