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To: Straight Up who wrote (5541)3/11/1999 12:47:00 PM
From: Mark Oliver  Respond to of 10081
 
<The slow roll out of Portico was for the reasons you have mentioned - to work out the kinks. GMGC didn't mass market Portico because they didn't want it to flop like so many other products have done.>

Well, the radio and newspaper blitz in the San Francisco area was pretty heavy while it lasted. I'd say it was a full on effort to get a lot of subscribers, and if it wasn't it was a pretty silly waste of money.

I think the current Portico effort is a market trial. They don't say it, but current subscribers are just test subjects that are paying. In fact, many are not paying. There seem to be a lot of free accounts going out.

I was an early sign on, and they stuck it too me. Paid $50 to sign on, and then got a few free minutes as a bonus. That might have accounted for expectations of higher numbers. With billing delays and sign on fees, the previous quarter would have been higher.

Anyway, does anybody know when revenues are logged, is it before or after the reseller gets his cut?

Anyway, the number sucked and people seem to want them to beg forgiveness, but actually I believe they are victum of their partners who just aren't moving quickly. I believe they might have had a Netscape announcement if AOL hadn't sign a merger and put all such things on hold.

It is difficult for phone companies to rewrite their bills as Markman said. What happens when you sell services to a customer that overlap Portico? Can you take the loss on one service and make it up with Portico? You certainly would like to have a better idea of churn before you do.

So anyway, the schedule has been set.

- Don't expect anything from the coming quarter in GM Portico revenues.

- They will run out of money, but money is available???? We shall see at what cost, but clearly, WK and Intuit must think there's some backing or they woudn't bother.

- Expect WK and Intuit to go on line with some possible revenues starting. Maybe something from Qwest as well.

- I guess we will see some announcement in the next quarter of a new partner for Portico, or Internet.

But, if one year from Portico start, they still have less than 20,000 customers, I think it's a failure. That gives them about 4 months to come up with perhaps 15,000 new users assuming the best about what they might have today.

Yes, hard to feel good about this situation. Maybe some tax loss selling is a good idea? Doesn't look like we risk much waiting 30 days to re-evaluate.

Regards,

Mark

PS I think we can all say with assurance, there will never be announcements of new services or customers at a conference call, or shareholder meeting.