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Technology Stocks : Alcatel (ALA) and France -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steve Fancy who wrote (529)	3/12/1999 1:55:00 AM
From: bertrand bidaud	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3891

I am a bit disappointed by the stock move. It went up more than 5% after the opening in Paris, and the next thing I know is that at the end of the day in NY it is up only 1%! I hear that in Paris, everyone has been busy with the BNP/SG/Paribas saga. And that other things are overlooked. May be, but the stock was up so strongly initialy that i am rather cautious... There has been a reversal during the day. Why? I think that we have a few things with us potentially: 1- Analysts review: they cannot get worse, so upgrade will follow surely. It is a question of when, no if. Hopefully, next week if as I think, Tchuruck meets leading analysts and funds managers. If they are pissed over last year, they will wait again 2- Many good news should come in the coming months: - Framatome after elections, -and may be later this year (I do not expect it though) Thomson partnership opening the way for ALA to sell its shares or reduce its holding: I rather believe that it wil take another year or two. As with Alstom , DSL orders (I hope), - Skybridge big announcements with Telecom operators joining the project, Globalstar betrter visibility with some 'new' revenue stream at the end of the year, - better position on wireless? - Euro up? It slipped almost 10% since January I think. Lafontaine resignation should give a 'natural push' to the ADR. Lafontaine did not help the Euro, so this is good for arbitrage. If the Euro did not slip, we would be at more than 28 on the ADR. From the level where it is now, the currency downside is more limited than its upside. As you may know, I am rather positive about the stock and want now to increase again my position. But any contrarian view would be welcome