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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (5826)	3/11/1999 1:21:00 PM
From: LK2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

RE--is the QNTM tracking stock a parlor trick, or an exit from a low-profit business? In the stock market, parlor tricks can result in real changes in stock price. Almost everyone agrees that a stock split doesn't change the underlying fundamentals of a company's stock price. But in the short term, at least, a stock split often has a positive effect on the stock price. Will QNTM exit the disk drive business some time in the future? Who knows? They could eventually either sell the business or spin it off to the shareholders. But I would guess that any such move would be far into the future. There have been no signs the company is thinking along those lines currently, in spite of the tracking stock. Remember, there was a short-term pop in the stock price when the tracking stock announcement was made. And there could be more room for stock price improvement, because it does focus attention on the faster growing tape business. The digital VCR sounds interesting. Depending on cost, it could replace the traditional VCR. And the digital VCR certainly wouldn't be limited to high-end digital TVs. One problem is that traditional VCRs have come down so much in price already. What used to be a high-end VCR now sells in the $100-200 range, which is lower than what the low-end VCR used to sell for. And people like Yogi prefer to download their content from the Internet. So you have to figure all those hold-outs into your profit projections as well. <G> Regards, Larry

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (5826)	3/11/1999 2:23:00 PM
From: LK2	Respond to of 9256

Mark, there is a short article on QNTM and its recent tracking stock in Individual Investor Online. iionline.com Regarding why QNTM is issuing the tracking stock-- >Why is Quantum doing this? Obviously because the company thinks investors would place a higher value on its two parts than the overall company is currently receiving.< To read the article itself, you need to register, but registration is free. Individual Investor covers a lot of tech stocks. The articles are easy to read and sensible. But how much they really help anyone on stock selection/timing is another matter. The truth is, from what I have read and from my own observations in reading the Individual Investor magazine (not the online edition), Individual Investor gives you a little insight into these companies, but has very little practical value for stock selection or timing. I have read a couple of articles in the past that showed that Jonathan Steinburg, who owns Individual Investor, also runs a hedge (?) fund. In the past he has front-run the stock recommendations in the magazine. In other words, he uses the magazine to pump up the prices of stocks he is dumping. (That isn't illegal, and that is typical behavior on Wall Street) Based on what I read, which was quite a while ago, his hedge funds did very poorly versus the market and versus tech stocks in general. I read this maybe two years ago, and haven't really read the Individual Investor magazine since then. Because I didn't see much value in reading about stocks and not knowing whether I would be the dumping ground for someone else's castoffs. But the articles do give a simple description on many different stocks, for what it's worth. Regards, Larry

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (5826)	3/11/1999 4:18:00 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Mark, "Have you heard what capacity Quantum expects these AVHDDs to ship in?" No. "It seems like the first systems will be very expensive anyway" They may be somewhat premium priced, but that would be what you would expect from a new kind of product like this. But I would think that the price and the production cost could go down rapidly, depending on which consumer segment is being targeted. I wonder too, though, just how proprietary the technology is. Possibly not very proprietary, but if that is so, why would MEI need QNTM? Gives some credence to the speculation, perhaps, that the drive division will be packaged off to Japan eventually. Did anyone see that comment from some analyst, I forget who was recommending QNTM because the tape division was, in his estimation, worth around $25-26, and the drive division was worth (drum roll) about $6.50/share?! I found the latter valuation pretty amazing, frankly. The PSR on that comes to less than .25 or so (7x150m=$1.05b, with sales of around $4 billion for drives).