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Strategies & Market Trends : Befriend the Trend Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ken Adams who wrote (3300)	3/11/1999 2:11:00 PM
From: Charles Kalb	Respond to of 39683

To ALL: A call gone wrong on LNCR Hope no one followed me long into LNCR two days ago. It has been a beautiful rolling stock since last summer. One indicator I look at gave 13 consecutive correct calls for the major hills and valleys. I rode the 13th call for a successful short as I earlier reported, but the 14th call has bit me and I'm still long. Two very weak days in a row now including today. Can't find any news which would explain weakness. A wild guess is some institutional holdings being liquidated. Normally one would bail out with a loss at this point; however, I just did some analysis which might indicate a major resistance point has stopped the slide. At this point I'm willing to risk some additional loss if it is likely the bottom is close at hand. If one draws a standard error channel for LNCR back to early May '98 we see LNCR has been in a modestly declining channel which captures all the price action except for some very slight and short-duration excursions outside the error channel. Right now the lower error band is sitting at about 29.75. This morning's slide from 33 area seems to have met support at 30 and the low of the day is 29.75. Rather than lock in a significant loss I'm betting that the lower channel line will hold. Those inclined might want to watch for the rebound. If LNCR breaks below about 28.5 then a real paradigm shift will have occurred for LNCR because it will have broken below a year-long error channel. Charles