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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Mansfield who wrote (4511)	3/11/1999 3:48:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 9818

Yourdon: ' Will Y2K Discussions Cause Panic? ' yourdon.com ' Why isn't anyone panicking? Simple: the concerns about Y2K are all speculation at this point. It's all theory. It's all abstract and murky and unprovable. Hardly anyone understands computer software, and of those who do, even fewer have any experience with large, complex projects involving hundreds of people. It's easy to understand why the average person would conclude that if a Y2K problem really does exist, "they" will fix it (whoever "they" are; it's a mystery to me, since I've not yet seen anyone wandering around with "they" emblazoned on their shirts or blouses). And I believe the situation will remain this way unless, or until, some tangible event occurs to illustrate the nature of Y2K. That could happen as early as January 1, 1999 when reservation systems or other "look-ahead" systems run into problems; and unless we're extremely lucky, I think it's quite likely to occur at the beginning of the 1999-2000 fiscal year on April 1, 1999 (for New York State, Canada, and Japan) or July 1, 1999 (for 46 U.S. states ) or October 1, 1999 (for the U.S. federal government). At that point, if the problem is large enough, and if it can't be easily hidden or fixed or denied by the authorities in charge, perhaps we will have a panic; and perhaps it will be fueld by alarmist media reporting. But in the meantime, predictions of panic are premature. '