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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C.K. Houston who wrote (4516)	3/11/1999 3:44:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Respond to of 9818

tmn.com interesting background reading

To: C.K. Houston who wrote (4516)	3/11/1999 3:59:00 PM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

' Y2K Severity Indicators asked in the TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) Q&A Forum -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I am a GI who expects Y2K to be an 8 (sever depression and social chaos). However, my certainty of this has gone from 100% to 80% since the beginning of this year. I believe that that are three indicators that we can look for to predict the severity of Y2K: * The frequency and disruptiveness of pre-year-2000 Y2K problems. This is the "Joann Effect" caused by systems that project dates into 2000. My decreased certainty is based on the few and quickly corrected problems that we have seen so far. Events such as major power outages and companies going out of business would increase my certainty. * CEOs and CIOs (chief information officers) of majors corporations and heads of government agencies suddenly resigning. So far, I have not seen any of this. * A sudden and dramatic increase in the price of gold. If the powers-that-be think that we are headed for disaster, I would expect them to start to convert some of their immense wealth to hard assets. -- Incredulous (ytt000@aol.com), March 11, 1999 Answers Incredulous, I believe the IRS has had some high level shakeups with the Director & CIO in last year. Just got back from shopping at Northern Tools. I GI but still a little shocked about the generators....a whole big wall is usually dedicated to generators and they had the big signs about generators unavailable. Talked to salesclerk & he said it was because of Y2K and they don't know when they'll be restocked due to shortages with manufacturers.... -- Texan (rainy@ranch.com), March 11, 1999. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'd reserve judgment until at least mid-April. At that time we will have experienced several key milestones: April 1, 1999 - Beginning of fiscal years for Japan, Canada, and New York and April 6, 1999 - Beginning of fiscal year for United Kingdom. Also wait to see what happens on July 1, 1999 - Beginning of fiscal years for Australia and 46 U.S. States. We are in the slow, build-up part of the 1999 Y2K occurrences curve. See the plot of Y2K problem frequency vs time on my website at One Person's Assessment Brian -- Brian E. Smith (besmith@mail.arc.nasa.gov), March 11, 1999. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Contribute an answer to "Y2K Severity Indicators" -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- timebomb2000@yourdon.com