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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: long-gone who wrote (29782)	3/11/1999 7:13:00 PM
From: Ken Benes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116837

Richard: Homestake is not a good representation for moves in the Xau. HM for a multiple of reasons has been a laggard prior to most early moves in gold. Nem and abx are the stocks to watch and generally react first to moves in the gold market. NXTL having a national footprint is or will be a valuable company. As you point out the current market cap of 8 billion plus is rather low when considering the recent purchase of airtouch for 50 billion. Grant it, nextel is highly leveraged, and is just turning the corner for being CF positive, however, with its high arpu, national footprint, and international markets, this stock will probably be taken out sometime in the future at a nice premium to todays price. If you look at my recent posts, you would see the reservations I have concerning the current situation of nxtl. Nextel is nothing more than one of many stocks with potential. Finally, all I am saying to you and other prospective investors in gold, is it is a difficult market at best and watching every\ little nuance that may or may not effect gold shares is a self defeating situation. A reasonable sum invested in premium stocks, or junior producers at low prices will serve as an adequate hedge to the turmoil envisioned on this board and gold should be nothing more than a hedge. It should not be construed as the pot at the end of a rainbow. Ken

To: long-gone who wrote (29782)	3/11/1999 11:42:00 PM
From: PaulM	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116837

FWIW, physical gold looks more appealing than XAU to me. Reflecting on what's been going on the past few years, it occurs to me that Wall Street's managed to turn much of the mining industry into a hedge fund industry. Gold analysts tend to gloss over the possibility that an explosive upside move in gold is not in most miner's interests. Miners have become like much of the financial esablishment--OK with a small move up, or a small move down, but in real trouble should the unexpected arrive. Let's ask ourselves this: if gold went to say, $500/oz--a big move, but not a totally nutty figure by any means--and a miner has to deliver $350 gold for the next three or four years because of hedging, will the miner be able to make good on its obligations? $500 gold--which is likely to occur in a more inflationary (or at least weaker dollar) environment--probably also means the miner's cost per ounce is greater than $350. In that scenario, the miners are not only giving up the gold price increase, but are also possibly putting themselves at the mercy of their (gold) creditors. All this makes me wonder about the prospects (even longer term) of much of the XAU.