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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (51512)	3/11/1999 6:02:00 PM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 132070

LOL.

To: Earlie who wrote (51512)	3/11/1999 6:16:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie..Let stay with units here...revenues are a more complicated argument: Maffei just said "PC sales are strong"...Let say Intel does not pre-warn tomorrow.... Also, Kumar, IDC are saying that unit sales are healthy...IDC: 14% unit growth (y-o-y) Where does this put your view? BTW- Here's the problem with beating up on Dell this quarter.... (1) For the same (seasonal) reasons (that many on this thread deny exist)...Dell is going to see a huge jump in market share % when IDC/Dataquest numbers come out in the end of April...passing IBM as #2...If you doubt this, look at the previous year's data... (2) Dell got rid of "sales weakness" last quarter with the rollover of 300m in sales to this (couldn't close the contracts)..Even Merrill Lynch, in the memo slamming Compaq, said that Dell was "above plan" in February... (4) Preliminary word has it that March is strong for overall sales (all PC sellers)..(Microsoft announcement, Cpq has said "March above plan, PIII rollin') (5) Dell get 2 months of PIII sales in this reporting quarter...Other PC vendors only 1 month.... (6) Others (CPQ, IBM) working off their "stuffs" from 4Q...in a less competitive position for some of this quarter.. (7) Expectations arelower for Dell this quarter....Now, everyone thinks they grow at 30%....Guess what: You won't see 3-% on ANY of the important growth % figures (revenues, earnings, EPS, units, etc) in this next reporting period... Earlie, as the word gets out that sales are better than the horrible fears that are out there....especially looking at March, April.... box makers are going to rise.....probably starting tomorrow... I think that fear has shot its wad here...I do not think it is wise to be short Dell here, IMO...Always better to wait until after the earnings run.... Okay, fire away <g>...Looking forward to your comments...