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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (51540)	3/11/1999 8:40:00 PM
From: Bill F.	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 132070

earlie,that response was well done.don't know if anyone has covered this yet but about the p3.a publicly held distributor who shall remain nameless that sell x00 million dollars of intc parts told a friend that it was a total dog.he said the oems aren't even keeping them,in the front door aout the back.thats why it is sagging in they grey mkt.if people want to debate things how about they check the facts .regardless of all the hype and soft comments.the knowable facts,for those who look ,is that the p3 is doa.next question...

To: Earlie who wrote (51540)	3/11/1999 11:22:00 PM
From: KM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie: Please pardon me if I sound naive. I am dying, simply dying to load up on Dell puts but there's one thing bothering me. The stock is in the 40s now, thanks to the split. At first, I thought they split the stock to appease the herd knowing the price would drop, but now I'm wondering if they had other motives. Now, of course, I know that doesn't change anything about the overvaluation of the company or the problems in the PC market. I just wonder about the psychological angle. Last fall, Dell dropped into the low forties for a day and was absolutely overwhelmed by buyers. What happens this time if, let's say, the beast gets back into the high forties, maybe fiftyish, then the s**t hits the fan. Then we have Dell trading in the thirties and it looks like a huge bargain to the masses. Can it be driven into the twenties or teens do you think? I guess I'd like to know how much higher do you think the dipsters can push it up this time? It's been weak as hell the past few days. Thanks for input.

To: Earlie who wrote (51540)	3/11/1999 11:40:00 PM
From: Don Lloyd	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie - (There are comments I could make with respect to Mr. Muffei,....oh well, better leave well enough alone. Let's just say, that so far this quarter, ALL the HARD info as well as what I get from the field suggests that his overworn and non-numerical statement provides little to hang one's hat on. Keep in mind as well that although you prefer to leave revenues out, and MSFT couldn't care less what the price point of a PC is, all of the other players care a lot.) Does MSFT even have the capability of knowing what the PC end market demand is? I don't know what MSFT's revenue recognition policy is, but I sincerely doubt that they wait for an end user to register the software. I would assume that a Compaq box sitting in a distributor's warehouse looks much the same as the one on a consumer's desk, from MSFT's POV, at least until the inventory has totally clogged the channels. Regards, Don

To: Earlie who wrote (51540)	3/12/1999 12:29:00 AM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie: thanks a lot for the fine analysis. IMO, if M.Dell is really smart, he should start to guide analysts down somewhat, and then give surprise in earnings. That will do more good to the stock price than those worthless hyping. Best.

To: Earlie who wrote (51540)	3/12/1999 11:48:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie, "A very bright lad." LOL. Good note. But please lay off of Muffei over here. We don't to be on the thread when the mushroom cloud appears. <vbg> MB

To: Earlie who wrote (51540)	3/13/1999 1:37:00 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi Earlie...thanks for your lengthy response..sorry I havent had a chance to respond in-kind... Came up with a good idea (I think)...I am saving your post, and I plan to trot it out in a month or two when some of the issues /questions you raised should become more lucid (indisputably so?)...Bottom line: As a result of troubles in the PC arena, you are looking for some sort of major impact in Dell's stock price in the coming period/I do not agree (nor do I agree with some of your stated reasoning/data)..As opposed to playing point/counterpoint...it may be a bit easier for us to just to wait to see what happens and how the market reacts...That is good enough judge/jury for me.... (If either of us changes our opinion/portfolio in the meantime, we'll notify each other and why...) Fair enough?