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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (8027)	3/11/1999 10:56:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

>>what sector will be next to drive the market up?<< No idea, as I said I have sell signals on oil, natural gas, retail, Banks and most of the others are over sold and about to trigger sell signals ro are darn close to oversold. The NAS 100 is sitting on the lower tine of the fork and could try to run but I don't have any buy signals. The SOXX also has room for a little run but it hasn't responded the last couple days despite the anal cysts hyping MU in the local papers and the press releases on the news sites I follow. As I said, this could get real interesting. The software and IT services sector was hit hard so they could bounce but sentiment is pretty bad there and many would sell on a rally to cut their losses. CHRZ, KEA, CPWR etc are all waaaaay down on Y2K scare tactics. Hard to believe these were once 60-80 PE stocks with CHRZ now trading at a PE of 8. Maybe as oils drop, the trannies will run on the hype of lower costs but they have not been a street favorite lately either. Best thing I can do is just watch and wait, I just wait for my signals to tell me where to go. I feel IF it tries to run, it should be the techs again. Expectations are being geared down once again so they can make upside surprises later. Maybe they will just tank us down to shake out some weak shares then rally later, sometimes the street is willing to wait if they can make more in return <g> Good Luck, Lee

To: bobby beara who wrote (8027)	3/12/1999
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

bobby beara: The rally since Oct has been led by the big cap tech stocks and the big cap blue chips. Fewer and fewer stocks have been participating. As you know many stocks have already gone through a bear market rotation hidden beneath surface of the Indexes. A few large caps and the energy sector (the laggards of this Bull Run) have powered this latest run up of the Indexes. That is a classic topping scenario. I felt late last December that the market would take six to eight weeks to reveal a topping process and it did just that. I suspect we will reach 10K on the Dow. If I had to guess when, I would guess next week. I doubt the Dow will rise much above. But, it is NOT necessary for the Dow to reach 10K for this rally to find its top. I have been expecting by late March or early April, the big caps that have powered up the indexes since Oct will correct. If I were being cynical, I would think the Big Boys would want to get as much of the IRA and 401K Money in the Market before a correction as possible. Would that make April 15th as the watch day...<g> However, the market could begin a decline at anytime. At the least, this will be a strong move down and may challenge the Oct lows. Will it be a BK? I doubt it. However, I will stand aside until the market finds a bottom and reverses. BWDIK as always... Regards, LG