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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Allen Benn who wrote (4437)	3/13/1999 8:49:00 AM
From: dppl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10309

Terrific analysis Allan. One question CNBC asked of WIND in the interview that followed the earnings release was why WIND didn't communicate better with analysts. WIND replied that they went to the main conferences etc. and that they conceived of their problem as being one of invisibility to consumers.. CNBC had a point. Thomas

To: Allen Benn who wrote (4437)	3/13/1999 7:34:00 PM
From: peter grossman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

Thanks once again for your analysis. "Also, in the last conference call, Ron indicated that Run-time fees comprised somewhere between 20% and 40% of total revenues (which I believe went unnoticed by the thread!). Check to make sure this condition is not violated for FY 1999. I got 27.8%, which feels right." I recall that in the conference call Ron also said that run-time fees were closer to 20% than 40%, but continuing to increase. Given the similar way he hinted over time about I2O royalty rates, 27.8% seems very comfortable current percentage for run time royalties. Whereas the Sony Playstation may or may not eventuate royalties, many of the other 8000 design wins will. Just because the I2O ramp up is lagging behind the original estimated timeframe doesn't mean some other potential big wins aren't ahead of schedule. Does anyone know, or care to speculate, about deals that may generate unit royalties of 500,000 or more some time in the future? The company has been forthright about I2O. Is this because Intel allows them to, or throws out numbers themselves? As a policy, does WIND intimate about potential large future royalty streams such as, but other than, I2O? I am a very comfortable shareholder at these levels, primarily because the growth rates you suggest seem reasonably conservatively attainable, and underappreciated by the stock price. But even greater growth seems quite plausible if any number of WIND designed in products take off. For instance, can you speculate on unit royalty rates for cable modems or digital cameras? Is 2% of manufacturing cost a decent basis?