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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AlienTech who wrote (19643)	3/11/1999 11:22:00 PM
From: VLAD	Respond to of 23519

Alien, The best thing about the spike up last Monday and subsequent sell off is that it allowed many of the impatient weaker hands that started buying at below 7 and continued to average down below 3 to actually exit their entire position at a profit. Those that started buying Vivus at 10 to 15 and averaged down will obviously have to wait until it trades in the 7 to 10 range if they want to exit at a profit. And those who started buying before the December '97 gap down will have to wait much much longer to get out at a profit. IMO the whole Vivus thing is a waiting game. Small caps are still the laggards while the same big 50 large cap companies keep going up and up and up and up and........ Like I said before, IMO Vivus will eventually fill the gap from 15 to 21. I don't know how long it will take but I am confident it will happen because I know that the company is not going out of business and I see a lot of promising positives for this company.

To: AlienTech who wrote (19643)	3/12/1999 2:11:00 PM
From: VLAD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Alien......OT...... Do you remember our discussion about Komag? Just thought I would point out the classic brokerage house pump and dump scam. Just a quick review: Company has had four consecutive quarters of large loses totaling a loss of $6.98/share. Company has a debt of $260M and is in technical default on some of its loans. Company is in the worse industry relating to computers. Now for the good part: On October 8 & 9 it traded at a 52 week low @ $2.00/share. On no news it makes a move from 2 to to 8 by November 6th. That's a 400% gain in 4 weeks of trading. Do you wonder who was loading the boat from 2 to 8? Then on December 14 Goldman Sucks upgrades to a market outperform (stock closes at 9 9/16 up 5/8 for the day). Then on December 22 NB Montgomery upgrades from a hold to a buy (stock closes at 11 up 1/16 for the day). These upgrades were the obvious pump as you can bet that these two brokerages had loaded the boat in October and November. So then the stock runs up to as high as 15 5/8 on January 15. You can bet that Goldman and Montgomery were dumping all those shares they bought from $2 to $9/share at $10 to $15 5/8/share on the sucker's rally. I bet they also were shorting from 15 5/8 down to 10. Then on February 18th, Hambrectt & Quist (a big Vivus holder I may add) upgrades KMAG from a hold to a buy. Stock closes at 7 - up 1/2 for the day. Now here we are almost a month later and the stock is trading in the $6 range. So to summarize how the individual investor would have fared if they bought and held KMAG as an investment based on broker recommendation and based on the closing price on the day of the upgrade compared to the yesterday's closing price(6 9/16): Buy on Goldman's December 14 recommendation @ $9 9/16 shows a loss of 32% on your money if still holding. Buy on NB Montgomerey's December 22 recommendation @ $11 shows a loss of 40.3% on your money. Buy on H&Q's February 18 recommendation @ $7.00 shows a loss of 6 1/4%. The moral of the story is that quite often when a stock makes substantial upward moves on no news, it is because some of the major brokerages are buying millions of shares before their buy recommendations and they will be selling into the subsequent run up following their buy recommendation. By the same token, if we see Vivus run now from $2 to $10 to $15 on no significant news its only because the brokerages have been accumulating before their buy recommendations. The time to sell is when the stock stops rising after the buy recommendation. In Vivus' case this may be as high as the eventual gap filling from $15 to $21/share.