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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: grogger who wrote (7063)	3/12/1999 8:50:00 AM
From: William Epstein	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7841

Rob Grogg; Concerns about PC sales are really very overblown. Consider carefully. The PC vendors are doing better than ever. DEll made its numbers and year over year advanced 38%. Does that sound like a company in trouble? There is no slow down in PC sales only a bunch of analysts and media people talking the price down. heirtag has listed a number of companies including INTEL who are issuing warnings. Most of the warnings are not warnings but company managements saying we can meet the market's unrealistic expectations. However, look atttt the companies, themselves. By any reasonable standard they're doing great. Consider, how could SEG and the DD industry be shipping 11%-15% more units if the PC OEMs were not there to buy them? Where would that demand come from? Look, this is what I've said, so many times. They talked the whole market down in Feb., in order, to cover accumulated shorts and to repurchase stock at wholesale levels for a coming advance. All the rest is crap. You saw that 9 mil. share day for SEG. Look at all the other charts for all these other companies and they all look the same with a giant downspike in volume at the bottom. The SEG chart goes down in a stair step pattern with about 7 breaks to the downside in 8 weeks. Our boy had trouble bringing the price down so he closed one day and opened down a point or more the next. Does this look like random trading? The decline is very regular and looks carefully timed. Look at all the other high techs. and you will see they all declined about the same percentage. Does that make sense if it is random trading? Even if the general decline was legitimate the percentages of decline should be all over the place. All of the crap we have been posting is really us trying to second guess or anticipate the specialist's moves at the bottom. If this were random trading how could I chart out the bottom (26) in advance and be proved correct? And I say that if he drops it again then the bottom will be 24-25 nor could I post on a Friday close (2 weeks ago) that the market had bottomed and again, be proved correct. This is not serendipity! It is knowledge gained from careful observation, not just of SEG but the whole market. If you know how to read the charts they tell a story. There a people behind those upticks and downticks. That is why I've said that this will all be forgotten in a few months. I am still very optimistic. When there really is a bear market then you will see the analysts remain optimistic all the painful way down until the bottom when they will suddenly scream gloom and doom after you've watched your money will melt away. Rob, please don't take this personally. I have responded to you but I am really writing to everyone on this BB. PHOTOMAN